NFL Week 5 Thursday Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Two of the oldest franchises in the NFL will square off on Thursday Night Football this week. We are likely to hear the broadcast mention their storied pasts often because the present is not great for either the Chicago Bears or the Washington Commanders. Chicago is currently the worst team in the league with an 0-4 record and just lost its 14^th straight game dating back to last season after blowing a 21-point lead against Denver. The Commanders have been more competitive with a 2-2 record under second-year quarterback Sam Howell, so they are touchdown favorites by the NFL betting odds on TNF.

NFL Week 5 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Play: Washington -6

It’s really difficult to back the Bears unless they are getting at least seven points. This franchise is in complete disarray right now, and there are currently multiple levels of in-fighting. Justin Fields made some pointed remarks about head coach Matt Eberflus last week, and Chase Claypool was held out of Sunday’s game against Denver despite Eberflus hinting that injury was the reason that Claypool didn’t play.

The good news is that Fields is coming off his best game of the season by a mile. He didn’t have a QBR higher than 25 in any of his first three games this year, but he completed 28 of 35 passes for 335 yards with four touchdowns and an interception against Denver’s porous defense on Sunday afternoon. However, there is still the pressing matter of sacks as he has taken a lot of sacks despite his mobility. Fields is averaging 4.8 YPC, but he has been sacked 17 times in four games.

To be fair, you can’t be too hard on Fields given the complete lack of talent around him. He has never had much of a chance to succeed as he has routinely had some of the worst receivers in the league to throw to in the passing game. D.J. Moore has been the most talented receiver he has had to throw to during the last three season, and Moore was only acquired in the trade for the No. 1 overall pick this offseason. Only two other wide receivers have more than 50 receiving yards on the season, and they are Darnell Mooney (104) and Claypool (51).

As for Washington, there’s reason to believe this franchise is finally turning it around after almost 25 years of mediocrity. The Commanders have a new owner at long last, and the departure of Daniel Snyder figures to do quite a lot for this team. They are 2-2 so far this season, but one of their losses was to the Super Bowl betting favorite Buffalo Bills and the other loss was on the road against Philadelphia in overtime this past weekend.

Sam Howell was seen as a potential first-round pick prior to his final year at North Carolina. He was electric as a sophomore in 2020, but his numbers weren’t as good in 2021 so he fell all the way to the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Howell has proven that he is more talented than where he was selected through his first four games this season as he is completing 67.1% of his passes for 961 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions.

There are some decent options at the skill positions for Washington. Terry McLaurin has continually been one of the league’s most underrated receivers, and Brian Robinson Jr. is a solid running back that can pick up tough yards.

Chicago has long been known for its defense. Several Hall of Fame players have come through the Windy City no this side of the ball over the years, but this year’s Monsters of the Midway are not intimidating in the slightest. The Bears rank 31^st in scoring defense (34.3 PPG) and 27^th in total defense (383.3 YPG). Opponents are converting 59% of their third downs against this team, and the secondary has had a real tough time stopping opposing quarterbacks. That should continue on a short week, so lay the points with the Commanders at home on TNF unless the football betting line gets to 7 or more.