NFL Week 4 Thursday Picks, Predictions, and Odds

We have now picked winners for two straight weeks on Thursday Night Football. Minnesota covered the NFL betting line for us two weeks ago, and San Francisco’s defense made sure the Under cashed on TNF last week. Now, we are expected to have the most competitive tilt on Thursday night yet this season when the Detroit Lions go on the road to face the Green Bay Packers. Detroit has won three straight games in this series, but those victories were all by one score.

NFL Week 4 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Play: Green Bay +1.5

It took Green Bay three quarters to get going last week, but the Packers eventually turned it on in the fourth quarter to narrowly defeat the New Orleans Saints in their home opener at Lambeau Field. The Saints raced out to a 17-0 lead at halftime, but they were listless on offense in the second half as Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the game.

That allowed Jordan Love to lead the Pack back over the final 13 minutes of action. Green Bay scored 18 points to take the lead with less than three minutes remaining, as Love led the Packers on two 80-yard touchdown drives. It was an impressive display considering Aaron Jones was out, and the ground game had very little success throughout the afternoon.

One of the most important things to watch prior to this game is Green Bay’s injury report. Jones, Christian Watson, and star offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins were all out last week against New Orleans, and we have yet to hear whether or not they will be able to suit up on short rest. The return of any of those players would be big considering they represent the team’s top running back, No. 2 receiver, and top two linemen, and that could only help against a porous Detroit defense.

Some observers are riding high on Detroit once more after a nice win over Atlanta this weekend. The Lions have Super Bowl betting odds of 20-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, but there are still real questions about this defense. The Falcons are extremely one-dimensional on offense, and the Lions were able to use that to their advantage. Detroit recorded seven sacks and held Atlanta to just 2.2 YPC in a 20-6 victory.

Jared Goff has been good, but not great, considering he has had incredible protection so far this season. Goff has only been sacked three times through three games, and he has only lost 10 sack yards with Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker on the edge. However, Decker is dealing with an ankle injury that has sidelined him for two straight games, so he might be unable to play once again on Thursday night.

Additionally, the ground game has not fared well through the first three games of the 2023 season. Detroit is averaging just 3.8 YPC, and the Lions don’t have a run longer than 21 yards. That lack of explosiveness has kept this offense from taking things to the next level.

Green Bay’s defense does not look that impressive at first glance. The Packers have played three mediocre offenses, yet they are allowing 20.7 PPG and 336.3 YPG. However, they allowed a lot of yards and points to Chicago in garbage time in Week 1, and they largely stymied Atlanta’s passing game until the fourth quarter two weeks ago.

The key to beating Green Bay is running on this front seven. Atlanta was able to do the job with its run-heavy approach, but we haven’t seen that out of Detroit. The Lions want to air it out, and that is something that typically plays into Green Bay’s hands. The Packers have two solid corners and a playmaking safety in Darnell Savage. They can force a few mistakes out of Goff, and we believe that will help Green Bay win the turnover battle.

There’s too much hype surrounding Detroit, especially considering the Lions are on the road and don’t have a good defense. This is a very nice spot to take Green Bay as an outright underdog on the NFL betting line.