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NFL Week 4 Line Move Plays
September 29, 2023
After two consecutive weeks with two Monday Night Football games, we will move back to the traditional format this week. The New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks will square off to close out the first month of the 2023-24 NFL season. Seattle is currently a slight favorite by the NFL betting odds in this game although this game is being played in the Big Apple. The Seahawks really need this win if they have any chance of catching San Francisco for the division title, as the Niners are 3-0 and have looked superb.
NFL Week 4 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Seahawks -2
New York Giants +2
Total 47.5
Play: Under 47.5
The New York Giants are the only team in the NFC East with a losing record. Philadelphia is 3-0 and Washington and Dallas are each 2-1, so the Giants need to win in order to avoid falling too far behind the top teams in the division.
The good news for the Giants is that they are playing at home, and that they have had extra time to prepare after taking on San Francisco on Thursday Night Football last week. Big Blue never had a chance in that game, but the G Men benefited from a few extra days of rest and practice before this game against Seattle.
That extra rest could be huge as it might mean that the Giants would have Saquon Barkley available for this game. He was injured in the comeback win over Arizona, and this offense is just not the same without him as a running threat. It doesn’t allow Daniel Jones to be nearly as successful on play action, and Jones is already having a return to Earth type of season.
After taking the team to the postseason and a playoff win, Daniel Jones asked to get a big extension. Jones never had an above average season until the 2022 campaign, but the front office decided to lock him up with a four-year, $160 million extension. It’s quite clear that they are having a bit of buyer’s remorse considering Jones’ performance through three games as the former top ten pick is completing just 64.9% of his passes for 5.8 YPA with two touchdowns and four INTs.
Seattle does not have a good defense, ranking 29th in both total defense and scoring defense. The Seahawks are allowing 29.3 PPG and 407.3 YPG, and they can’t get off the field on third down. Opponents are completing 57.5% of their third downs on Seattle.
However, the run defense has been solid. Seattle is allowing just 2.9 YPC, and opponents are averaging just 79.3 YPG on the ground against this front seven. The secondary has been bleak, surrendering 328 YPG through the air, and that’s been the major issue. The Seahawks can’t get after the quarterback, and they are allowing teams to score touchdowns on 100% of their trips inside the red zone.
Geno Smith laid an egg in his first start of the season, but he has rebounded to lead Seattle to back-to-back wins. Smith is completing 68.9% of his passes for 7.1 YPA with four touchdowns and an interception as he continues to prove that he deserves to be a starter.
Seattle has talent at the skill positions too. Kenneth Walker III is healthy once more, and the combination of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett continues to stretch the field. However, first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba has yet to make much of an impact. He has just nine receptions for 57 yards through three games.
It’s tough to tell who is going to win this game. The teams are pretty evenly matched, and although we think Seattle is a little better than New York, the game is on the East Coast and the G-Men have extra rest.
The Under looks like a solid bet though. The Giants run the ball to set up the pass game, and they may not have Barkley and are running against a very good front. Conversely, the Giants have a strong defensive line that can control the line of scrimmage like we saw the Los Angeles Rams do against the Seahawks in Week 1.
