College Football Week 4 Line Move Plays
September 21, 2023
Week 3 NFL Teaser Best Bets
September 22, 2023
For the second straight week, we will have two games on Monday Night Football. Both games were competitive throughout last week with New Orleans holding on for a three-point win over Carolina and Pittsburgh defeating Cleveland by four points thanks to two defensive touchdowns. The oddsmakers expect both of this week’s Monday night tilts to be close too as Cincinnati is only a field goal favorite by the NFL betting odds against the Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia is less than a five-point favorite on the road against Tampa Bay.
NFL Week 3 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5
Total 46
Los Angeles Rams +3
Cincinnati Bengals -3
Total 44
Plays: Tampa Bay +4.5, Cincinnati -3
Even though the NFL betting line has already moved against us somewhat, the best bet in the first MNF game is Tampa Bay with the points. The Buccaneers have turned a lot of heads with their 2-0 start. Most pundits expected the defense to be a top ten or even top five unit, but there were plenty of questions surrounding the offense.
The ground game has not been reliable. Tampa Bay is averaging just 2.9 YPC through two games, and the Buccaneers don’t have a run longer than 14 yards yet this season. Fortunately, Baker Mayfield has been pretty sharp in the passing game, completing 69.1% of his passes for 490 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Mike Evans has been a force to be reckoned with on deep routes and should have his 10th straight 1,000-yard season barring injury, while Chris Godwin continues to be an overqualified second receiver.
Philadelphia has a good defense, but this secondary has been something of an issue through the first two games. New England couldn’t take advantage of it in Week 1, but Kirk Cousins was able to continually move the ball against the Eagles last week. Evans and Godwin should have a good deal of success against this unit, while the Buccaneers play well enough on defense to keep the final score close.
In the last game of Week 3, we really like Cincinnati to cover the spread even though this is going to be a square play. The Bengals lost their first two games last year and were 4-4 through the end of October before coming alive with eight straight wins to end the regular season. Joe Burrow looked rather pedestrian in his first two games last season, so the Bengals have a track record of being a slow starting squad.
There is a question of whether or not Burrow will suit up on Monday night. He has been dealing with a calf issue that has kept him out of practice, and this game becomes a no bet pretty quickly if Jake Browning ends up being the starter. Browning is 27 years old and has thrown just one pass attempt as a professional quarterback.
That would not bode well for the Bengals ability to move the chains. The offensive line has taken a step back in 2023, and Joe Mixon has just 115 rushing yards through the first two games of the season. Cincinnati has gotten worse on defense too, but this should be a game where the Bengals take care of business on both sides of the ball.
The LA Rams are likely to be moribund this season even though Sean McVay is a great coach. The team is in salary cap hell after the moves it made to win the Super Bowl a couple years back, so this is a rebuilding year. Aaron Donald is still a one-man wrecking crew on defense, but there are numerous questions elsewhere on that side of the ball.
Matthew Stafford might have a little more juice left in the tank, but it sounds like he is on his last legs too. Stafford only played in nine games in 2022 before sitting out the remainder of the season, and he will turn 36 in February. That’s not a recipe for long-term success, and he seems like he is set to go the same way as contemporaries like Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, and Phil Rivers.
