NFL Week 2 Line Move Plays

It won’t be hard to top our performance from Week 1 of the new NFL season. We recommended four plays (including two plays on Thursday Night Football), and all four of those plays lost. Kansas City failed to cover any number in an outright loss to Detroit that also managed to go Under the NFL betting total. The ‘Under’ in the Green Bay-Chicago game fell apart in the second half after looking solid in the first half, and Buffalo was too turnover-prone as a short road favorite against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

NFL Week 2 Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

People are way too high on this Atlanta team after a 24-10 win over Carolina in Week 1. The Falcons were very one-dimensional in this game, and they finished with just 221 total yards of offense. It’s clear that Desmond Ridder doesn’t have what it takes to succeed on this level, but the Falcons continue to trust him. Ridder threw for just 115 yards in the season opener as Atlanta greatly benefited from three Carolina turnovers, and the Falcons had just one passing play of more than 20 yards.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love showed us that he can hit some big plays through the air in a Week 1 blowout of Chicago. The Packers had no problem covering all numbers in an 18-point road win over the Bears, so it is a bit surprising to see the football betting line move against them. Green Bay’s defense was very good in stopping the conventional aspect of Chicago’s ground game, holding the Bears’ three running backs to just 63 yards on 19 carries, so we disagree with the notion that Atlanta should be favored in this game.

Play: Green Bay +1.5

It looks like the oddsmakers made a serious mistake when they opened the Week 2 NFL betting odds. The total in this game was 52, and it has since fallen by five points although neither quarterback is injured. That movement appears to be due to how Seattle looked in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams and the status of their offensive tackles, but Detroit had the worst defense in the league last season and didn’t look great against Kansas City on Thursday Night Football.

We are seeing a little too much love for the Lions right now. They did beat the defending Super Bowl champions on the road in the season opener, but Kansas City was without its star pass catcher and its best defensive player. Even then the Chiefs would have likely won the game if not for three drops by Kadarius Toney (one of which led to a pick six for the Detroit defense).

Conversely, everyone is souring on Seattle far too quickly. The Seahawks had an awful performance in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams, but their offensive line was blown up by the most dominant defensive lineman in the game. Detroit doesn’t have anyone that can do anything close to that up front, so look for Seattle’s offense to look much better in Week 2.

Plays: Seattle +4.5, Over 47

Arguably the most disappointing team in Week 1 was Pittsburgh. The Steelers had just one total yard of offense midway through the second quarter against San Francisco, and the 49ers cruised to a 23-point win. Kenny Pickett had a lot of trouble moving the ball through the air, but the offensive line also let him down and allowed him to be sacked five times. The ground game was extremely ineffective too, leading to the Niners routinely dropping five or six players into coverage.

On the other hand, Cleveland’s defense was awesome in a 24-3 win over Cincinnati in Week 1. The Browns completely held one of the top offenses in the league in check, surrendering just 157 total yards. Joe Burrow completed just 14 of 31 passes for 82 yards in the loss, and that helped mask a subpar performance from Deshaun Watson and Cleveland’s offense. There will be some reversion to the mean for both sides in Week 2, and Pittsburgh has had the upper hand on Cleveland for a long time.

Play: Pittsburgh +2.5