The New England Patriots, one of the most successful franchises in NFL history, head into the 2023 NFL betting season looking to silence their naysayers after putting forth losing campaigns two of the last three seasons. However, according to oddsmakers at BetRivers Sportsbook, the Patriots’ season win total is projected at 7.5 victories, which is the lowest it has been since the genesis of the Brady/Belichick dynasty. Last year’s squad got handled by most teams that punched tickets to the playoffs, but threatened to go over its win total by taking advantage of lesser opposition. It won’t have that luxury this upcoming season with its schedule strength ranking out as the absolute toughest of all 32 teams when going by opponent win totals. That paired with being a member of one of if not the toughest divisions in the game has me extremely bearish on the Pats ability to surpass their season win total odds.

New England Patriots: A Team in Flux

New England finished third in the AFC East standings a season ago by way of winning eight of 17 played games. While it was one of only two teams to post a positive point differential within the division, it only clocked in at +17. For reference sake, the Bills clocked in at +169 and it lost and failed to cover both matchups with Buffalo losing by the aggregate score of 59-33. While the Matthew Judon led defense ranked out as one of the better units in the game (No. 11), the offense ended up ranking amongst the bottom third of the NFL in the most pertinent of stat categories. The scoring offense would’ve likely ranked in the bottom third as well if not for the defense and special teams combining for five touchdowns.

As bad the offense was a season ago, it came as quite the shock to see upper management utilize a bulk of its 12 NFL Draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. While some difference makers were no doubt added to the roster, the offense looks to once again be the Achilles Heel entering 2023-24. Should the rumors of DeAndre Hopkins inking a deal with the team come to fruition, it would put a jolt into the unit. That being said, “Nuk” is no longer the game changer he once was.

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New England Patriots Season Win Total: 7.5

The New England Patriots’ win total for the 2023 season is set at 7.5 with BetRivers currently paying out plus-money on the over. But was it linemakers or the betting public that’s bearish on the Pats ability to exceed expectations? A deep dive on the line movement shows New England initially offered up a +105 return on the under when the impost initially hit the board. The betting markets infiltration forced the hand of linemakers ultimately turning the under into the favored side. The exact opposite type of line movement occurred last season with the under favored initially before the vig flipped to the over. It looks like NFL bettors are done with New England after failing to go over last season’s 8.5-game offering. I agree with this sentiment! The Patriots hadn’t seen a sub-nine win total since the early 2000’s, but the reality of it now is it being the case in back-to-back years.

The Case for the Over

The Patriots are led by head coach Bill Belichick, widely regarded as one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. Belichick’s expertise and strategic prowess have consistently produced winning seasons for the Patriots. Additionally, the team has a promising young quarterback in Mac Jones whose shown glimpses of stardom throughout his first two seasons. While he took a step back in his sophomore campaign, it wasn’t entirely his fault with upper management failing to solidify its offensive coordinator position. That won’t be the case in 2023-24 with Bill O’Brien taking over the controls.

The front office also made significant moves in the offseason to bolster the roster. While they did not make any flashy big-name signings, they focused on building depth and addressing key positions. The additions of stud rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the NFL Draft and the return of key players from injury provide the Patriots with a solid foundation on both sides of the ball.

The Case for the Under

One of the primary concerns for the Patriots is their strength of schedule. Based on opponent win totals, the Patriots have the toughest schedule in the NFL per the folks at Sharp Football Analysis. This means they will face numerous teams that had winning records in the previous year, including formidable opponents from the AFC West and NFC East. The challenging schedule poses a significant obstacle for the Patriots, making it harder to secure wins and potentially affecting their overall win total.

While Mac Jones has shown promise, he is still a young quarterback with limited weapons. The Patriots’ success will heavily depend on his development and ability to perform consistently. Facing elite quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes will put Jones to the test. If he struggles against these top-tier opponents or if injuries disrupt his progress, it could hinder the Patriots’ chances of attaining eight wins.

New England Patriots Schedule: Nightmarish

The Patriots will be hard-pressed to log a single win the first five weeks of the regular season. Their best opportunity to do damage lies in weeks 6-10 but only two of those matchups will be played in the comforts of Gillette Stadium. The back half of the schedule is no joke as well with four of the seven games to be played away from the hometown faithful. Who knows what type of team marches onto the gridiron once NFL bettors are forced to stomach three straight prime time appearances in weeks 14-16!

Week 1: vs. Eagles

Week 2: vs. Dolphins (SNF)

Week 3: at Jets

Week 4: at Cowboys

Week 5: vs. Saints

Week 6: at Raiders

Week 7: vs. Bills

Week 8: at Dolphins

Week 9: vs. Commanders

Week 10: vs. Colts (London)

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: at Giants

Week 13: vs. Chargers

Week 14: at Steelers (TNF)

Week 15: vs. Chiefs (MNF)

Week 16: at Broncos (SNF)

Week 17: at Bills

Week 18: vs. Jets

New England Patriots Season Win Total Analysis

The AFC East is no joke entering the regular season. The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets are all favored to punch tickets to the playoffs at BetRivers. As for Mac Jones and the Patriots, they’re +230 choices to get back to the second season off a year hiatus. I hammered the under of New England’s season win total odds a season ago and was forced to sweat that ticket cash all the way until Week 18. Though the offering is a full game lower, I don’t expect to have to wait nearly as long to come out a winner on the under this time around. After nearly two decades of dominance, the humbling of this franchise and fan base will continue for at least another year; if not more. This team is likely better than it was a year ago, but the schedule paired with the bevy of fresh, young new faces will likely find it in the basement of the division standings come the season’s end.

New England Patriots Season Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5 -125

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