NBA Title Odds

Suddenly, there has been a shift in the balance of power in the NBA. The Eastern Conference was seen as somewhat wide open just last week, but two trades have shaken up the NBA title odds among the contenders. Milwaukee’s decision to trade for Damian Lillard has made the Bucks the overall favorites to win it all per the NBA futures odds, and Boston’s subsequent trade for Jrue Holiday on Sunday led to the Celtics leaping the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Now, Denver has the third lowest odds to win the NBA championship despite returning almost everyone and going 16-4 in the NBA Playoffs last season.

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BOSTON CELTICS

NBA Title Odds Before the Trade +550
NBA Title Odds After the Trade +400

Everyone knew that Portland wouldn’t hold onto Jrue Holiday for long, and the Trail Blazers ended up holding his rights for just a few days. They traded Holiday to the Celtics for Robert Williams III and two first-round picks as Rip City continues to tear it down and rebuild for the future.

Holiday is an excellent fit in Boston. He will ensure that the Celtics remain one of the best defenses in the NBA even with the loss of Williams and Marcus Smart this offseason. His addition also gives Boston a true point guard, and that is something the team has noticeably lacked over the last couple years.

It’s a big if, but IF the Celtics can stay healthy, they will be a nightmare to take on in the playoffs. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are an excellent one-two tandem, but Al Horford is 37 years old and Kristaps Porzingis played in just 94 games over three seasons before suiting up for 65 games last season (his most since the 2016-17 campaign).

DENVER NUGGETS

NBA Title Odds +450

It’s been a pretty mild offseason for the reigning NBA champions. Denver lost top bench player Bruce Brown to Indiana, but the Nuggets return their starting five from last season. Two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic will ensure that the Nuggets are a contender as long as he is healthy because he is in the prime of his career and is averaging a triple-double a game. Jokic makes everyone better with his play, allowing Aaron Gordon and others to thrive in this offense.

The lack of depth could hurt Denver over the course of the regular season, but they look to already have their seven-man rotation for the postseason. Reggie Jackson is a veteran that can come off the bench and provide scoring, while 2022 first-round pick Christian Braun showed some flashes during last year’s playoffs.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

NBA Title Odds +1400

The Los Angeles Lakers were completely outclassed by the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. LA was able to knock off Memphis and Golden State in the first two rounds, but the Lakers were swept by the Nuggets with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line. Anthony Davis and LeBron James each had a 40-point game, but neither performance was enough to get a single win in the series.

The big question hanging over the team is just how long James can play at a high level. He is not the game-changing superstar he was a decade ago in Miami, but he can still take over for short stretches. James will turn 39 in December, and he is coming off a season where he averaged 28.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 6.8 APG while making 50% of his field goals.

That puts more pressure on Davis and Austin Reaves. Davis can disappear for periods of time, but he is a dominant big man when he is focused. We saw him have two strong games and two subpar games against the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals last season.

As for Reaves, it is clear that he’s the X-Factor for the Lakers coming into the campaign. He averaged 13 PPG while making 52.9% of his field goals and 39.8% of his threes last year, and the Lakers were able to re-sign him after no team decided to sign him to a big offer sheet. His continued development is essential to the Lakers’ title hopes.