Mountain West CBB Futures Odds Betting – One to Buy, One to Sell

The San Diego State Aztecs continue to be the cream of the Mountain West Conference crop after going into Logan and scoring a huge outright win against Utah State on Wednesday night. In doing so, the current frontrunners look to have a solid grasp of the top seed in the upcoming MWC tournament. But is it really that cut and dry? I don’t think so!

While the conference isn’t as deep as it was a season ago, the top-five teams still find themselves littered throughout the top-50 of the most up to date Pomeroy Ratings. There is talent in this league. Hopefully it doesn’t collectively drop a big ‘ol stinky deuce in the Big Dance like it did a season ago. Either way, here’s one team I’m buying and another I’m selling over at BetRivers Sportsbook with six or so games remaining on every team’s docket.

Bet MWC Futures Odds at BetRivers Sportsbook

BUY: Nevada Wolf Pack +650

It’s cost me a decent chunk to come to this conclusion. I faded Jarod Lucas and Co. at home versus SDST thinking the Wolfpack’s susceptible defense would have their hands full with Matt Bradley once again after allowing the Aztecs to convert at a 50 percent clip in the first go-round. I took Nevada’s home court advantage for granted! San Diego State never once was in a position to cover the road chalk and lost 75-66 as 2.5-point favorites. Then I decided the following week that New Mexico would get the job done back home in “The Pit” with Nevada a much different team on the road than at home – guess again!

Lucas cut my heart out for the second straight week by ripping the Lobos for a game-high 28 points which included a six of nine showing from beyond the arc. The kid couldn’t miss! He and Kenan Blackshear form one of the more exciting and dependable guard duos in the MWC. Having already split with Boise State and SD State, the only tough game remaining on the slate is a trip to Logan where they’ll attempt to sweep the season rivalry from the Aggies. Do that, and a path to the regular season title will be made all the more clear with the team’s other five games comprised of Fresno State, San Jose State, @Fresno State, @Wyoming, and UNLV.

Steve Alford has this squad in a position to take home bragging rights for the first time since rattling off three straight titles from 2016-19 under Eric Musselman. Though we’re buying at the low end of the market, the remaining schedule paired with the team currently firing on all cylinders makes the +650 ROI much more enticing than laying the heavy chalk with the current favorite.

SELL: San Diego State Aztecs -305

Having won the Mountain West regular season title two of the last three seasons, it takes some brass cojones to fade what linemakers deem to be by far the best team in the conference. San Diego State just won the race to 10 wins in conference play by going into Logan and handing Utah State its first home defeat in MWC play. KenPom has the Aztecs rated out as the best team in the conference as well with Matt Bradley and his mates clocking in at No. 22 six spots ahead of No. 28 Boise State. Even so, I have my reservations.

It’s still a struggle at the offensive end of the court with the unit averaging just north of 74 points per game (No. 129) with only two players averaging double-digits in scoring. I hate when a team relies so heavily upon one player to succeed, and that’s once again the case with the 2022-23 Aztecs – its Bradley or bust! While the defense still rates out amongst the best in the country with Nathan Mensah going HAM, it’s not as fine-tuned as last year’s unit that was a stone wall in the paint. You can score on this team close to the rack (No. 251).

The kicker for me in fading the current first place team is the remaining schedule: UNLV, @Fresno State, Colorado State, @New Mexico, @Boise State, and Wyoming. Those back-to-back games in “The Pit” and Boise are problematic enough in my book to fade this team in the current Mountain West futures market.

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