MLB Same Game Parlays – Saturday, May 20

Last Saturday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 2-4 which made for a very frustrating day over at BetRivers Sportsbook. Not one but two substantial leads were blown by both Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. The Rays got out to a commanding 6-0 lead against the Yankees to cash the F5 bet with ease, but then Shane McClanahan blew up and New York went on to win 9-8. If that wasn’t enough, the Angels decided to piss down their leg in the eighth holding a 6-2 lead over the Guardians who plated six to score the 8-6 triumph. We cashed an easy ticket on the F5 over in Coors with seven runs on the board through three innings, but only four runs were plated the rest of the way which saw us get hooked on the full game total. Hopefully today’s MLB same game parlays treat us much better – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 65-63-5 (-$160)

LW: 11-9-2 ($135)

Bet Major League Baseball at BetRivers Sportsbook

Colorado Rockies vs. Texas Rangers

We’ve backed the Rockies Kyle Freeland a number of times this MLB betting season and lived to tell about it with mind-numbing regularity. It’s insane how well the left-hander has performed to this point with the regression monster yet to pay him a visit. The junkballer rarely goes to his fastball, but when he does he fails to exceed 90 mph. How on god’s green earth has he been able to win four of nine made starts with this repertoire?

While command has had much to do with it, the lefty has also been the benefactor of running up against an incredibly easy slate with all but one of the nine teams thrown at ranking out in the bottom half of the league versus left-handed pitching. That won’t be the case Saturday afternoon when he throws at a Rangers offense raking southpaws to the tune of a .807 OPS (No. 4) while averaging a league-best 7.6 runs per game. Making matters even worse for him is the fact that Adolis Garcia and his mates pepper sinkers, sliders, and curves for some of the best run values in MLB per Baseball Savant. Should he be forced to resort to the 4-seamer, they crush that too! Negative regression is bound to trounce Freeland, and this spot looks as ripe as any for it to occur.

SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: RANGERS RUN-LINE + OVER TEAM TOTAL + FREELAND UNDER PITCHING OUTS

 Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets

I’ve come away uber-impressed with rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee through his first four starts. He’s 1-1 with a 3.22 ERA and 22:4 K/BB ratio. His 2.72 FIP paints a picture of him being even better than his teammates have allowed him to be with the Guardians so-so in the error department (No. 17). Having said that, I don’t think he’ll have it in him to go into Citi Field and dominate the way he has against a Mets offense that finally seems to have gotten its groove back. NY only ranks No. 18 in OPS against RHP (.709) but still averages 5.1 runs per game.

With Jose Ramirez on the bereavement list and Josh Naylor dealing with a leg injury, I don’t think Cleveland has enough firepower at its disposal to hang with New York on the MLB odds should it get to the rookie early. I rode Max Scherzer in his last start against Washington and he granted me with five innings of 1 ER ball while fanning six with one BB. Only Detroit has been worse than Cleveland against RHP with it the owner of a .646 OPS while averaging 3.5 runs per game. With Mad Max up to 85 pitches last time out, this could be his deepest outing since the season opener.

SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: METS MONEYLINE + SCHERZER OVER PITCHING OUTS

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

I’m still scratching my head over how the Red Sox failed to get to Miles Mikolas in last week’s series finale on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. We pounded the first five and full game overs and ended up getting hooked early and pushing late. Boston remains one of the best RHP hitting teams in the Bigs! You know who ranks out right behind them in OPS (.798)? That’s right, none other than Mookie Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers who pepper righties for 5.9 runs per game (No. 2) while slugging .462 (No. 3) and launching 50 bombs into the cheap seats (No. 2).

I said it before and I’ll say it again – Mikolas stinks! One only has to look at his bloated 6.44 ERA and 10.0 hits allowed per nine innings. He’s been equally as bad against righties as he has lefties, so I expect Dave Roberts to give him a healthy dose of platoon splits in this outing. The right-hander ranks No. 45 in innings pitched mostly due to his ability to not issue free passes (66^th Percentile. That’ll be tough in this spot against a Dodgers offense with the highest walk rate in the game (11.7%). That paired with the offense likely to get theirs early paints a picture of this being one of his shortest outings of the year.

SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: DODGERS OVER TEAM TOTAL + MIKOLAS UNDER PITCHING OUTS