Last Saturday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 3-2 over at BetRivers Sportsbook to take home a modest profit. We went all in on the over in the matchup between the Red Sox and Phillies with Corey Kluber squaring off against Bailey Falter. The over cashed with ease on the MLB odds for both the F5 and FG, but we ended up splitting the team totals with Boston taking care of us while Philly somehow failed to exceed its impost even though it matched the BoSox’ 10 hits. The night closed out with an embarrassing loss with the Angels who got skunked 10-1 and then followed it up with a 16-8 loss to drop the series against the Rangers. In the end, we finished in the black and that will once again be the goal for this Saturday’s installment of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 54-54-3 (-$295)
LW: 8-14 (-$840)
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
The day kicks off with a heck of a pitching matchup in the Bronx where Nestor Cortes will square off against Shane McClanahan in game three of the four-game series between the Rays and Yankees. Tampa Bay has won all four of the southpaw’s road starts and did so by giving him an average of 8.0 runs per game to work with. I don’t expect the run support to be nearly as much in this turn, but still fully expect the Rays staff ace to continue building on some fantastic road outputs that’ve seen him allow 18 hits (1 HR) and 5 ER while racking up 24 K through 23.0 total innings of work.
He pitched to a 1.50 ERA and .212 batting average against in his three starts against New York last season, but is yet to earn a win in Yankee Stadium through three overall tries. I haven’t been overly impressed with Cortes this season with the left-hander only producing quality starts at a 29 percent rate all the while serving up 8.5 hits per nine and getting raked in day games to the tune of a 6.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Tampa’s roughed LHP up for 6.6 runs per game (No. 2) and come out victorious against the baseball betting odds six of the seven times it opposed a lefty starter. If truly a contender for the AL Cy Young Award – currently +550 at BetRivers - this is a start McClanahan must shine in. With NY just 4-4 and averaging 3.8 runs per game against LHP (No. 23), we’re laying the road chalk with the Rays.
BET THE RAYS F5 & FG
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
“I WISH I KNEW HOW TO QUIT YOU REID DETMERS!” We’ve backed the fireballing strikeout artist in each of his last two starts and have a pair of losing tickets to show for it. He’ll enter start No. 7 the owner of an 0-3 record and 5.10 ERA having logged quality starts just 17 percent of the time. However, I’ve got Saturday’s start against the Guardians pegged as one that finally gets him into the win column with Cleveland sporting arguably the worst offense the left-hander will have run up against to date.
The Guardians clock in 4-10 and average just 3.4 runs per game against LHP to date. While Cleveland has been a tougher team to send down via the strikeout evidenced by the team’s 20.2 percent K rate (No. 4), the offense matches up terribly against the arsenal Detmers is about to unleash upon it. Only two players own positive run values per Baseball Savant against the 4-seamer, two against the slider, and none against the curve. I fully expect Shohei Ohtani and the Angels offense to give him plenty of run support against Cal Quantrill to finally get him into the win column. This is a quintessential smash spot for the soon to be 24-year old!
BET THE HALOS + OVER DETMER’S K PROP
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Ranger Suarez will make his 2023 MLB betting debut in the thin air of Coors Field on Saturday night. While he proved to be more than serviceable as a back end rotation arm for the Phillies last season, this is a tough assignment running up against a Rockies offense that’s bludgeoned LHP to the tune of 5.7 runs per game (No. 6). The altitude could wreak havoc on his preferred pitch type (sinker) that he used at a 40 percent clip a season ago. As such, an early departure could certainly be in the cards which would propel Philly’s No. 26 ranked bullpen into the equation.
I reckon Colorado’s below average pen will be forced into the mix as well with Rockies starter Ryan Feltner likely to have his hands full with a Phillies offense that’s raked RHP for a .763 OPS (No. 7) and averaged 5.1 runs per game (No. 9). The righty can bring the heat evidenced by being ranked No. 50 in average fastball velocity, but the Phillies are a solid fastball hitting team and they also crush his most widely used pitch in the slider with Trea Turner sporting one of the highest run values (7) in the league against the pitch type. There’s no way his 5.6 BB/9 gets him in trouble against Bryce Harper and co. tonight, right? WRONG!!
BET THE F5 & FG OVER
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