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Not the greatest of showings for last Wednesday’s MLB parlay picks with Bobby Miller getting roughed up and the Dodgers losing to the Twins paired with the D’backs and Rockies bats going cold against a pair of susceptible arms in Coors. At least the Royals prevented us from taking the collar. Here’s to a nice showing on Wednesday, April 10 to see if we can come up with some winning legs to add to our same game parlays over at Caesars Sportsbook this time around – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
The Buccos have gotten out to an exceptional start to their 2024 campaign in becoming one of only two National League teams to have amassed 11 wins entering the week. While they could be in line to win the series entering Hump Day’s finale, I’m going to suggest fading Pittsburgh with Bailey Falter set to get the ball. While 1-0 with a 4.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, the left-hander has tallied a grand total of 6 K through 15.0 total innings thrown at the Marlins, Orioles, and Phillies; three teams with middling K rates. The Mets currently rank No. 4 in baseball in strikeout percentage doing so just 18.6% of the time.
Adding to this being a nice spot for New York is the fact that it league-average offense has tattooed LHP to the tune of a .291 batting average (#3) and .817 OPS (#3). While it’s only amounted to 4.5 runs per game, Falter getting it done with smoke and mirrors just might be the elixir that allows Pete Alonso and Co. to nuke the scoreboard. Tying it all together is a resurgent Luis Severino whose been stellar his last two times out against a pair of potent offenses in the Reds and Royals by allowing 4 hits, 2 ER, and serving up 14 worm burners to only 10 fly balls. NY is nowhere near as bad as its rough start to the MLB betting season suggested. It’s tallied three straight series wins and I expect the upward ascension to continue.
MLB SAME GAME PARLAY LEGS: METS MONEYLINE + SEVERINO OVER PITCHING OUTS PROP + FALTER UNDER K PROP
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
The Braves pitching staff took a huge hit last week when it was announced Spencer Strider was lost for the season. That however hasn’t prevented the offense from continuing to do its thing with Marcell Ozuna and his mates continuing to rip the cover off the ball. Atlanta rates out with the league’s No. 2 ranked scoring offense that’s dented scoreboards for an average of 6.5 runs per game. It also leads the league in both batting average (.301) and OPS (.857).
While the home runs haven’t come like you’d expect, it’s entirely possible a number of Atlanta sticks go yard in this one with J.P. France toeing the bump for the host Astros. At the very least, the Braves offense will tee off with Houston’s right-hander serving up 12.9 hits per nine while also allowing 4.1 walks. While his ugly 8.22 ERA has largely been due to throwing at the Rangers in each of his last two starts, the Braves attack is better and I fully expect it to thrive in this matchup. France is a fly ball pitcher and that won’t serve him well in Houston’s band box against an Atlanta outfit looking to close the series out on a high. With stud Max Fried on the bump, look for the Braves to make a statement in the finale!
MLB SAME GAME PARLAY LEGS: BRAVES RUN-LINE + BRAVES OVER TEAM TOTAL + FRANCE OVER ER PROP
Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners
While Reds’ lefty Andrew Abbott does little to get my juices flowing, the southpaw has been serviceable through three starts in going 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 11:4 K/BB ratio. Opponents are only batting .219 against him through 17.1 total innings. Seattle’s offense has been tough to watch through the first couple weeks of the baseball betting season with it ranked 28th in runs/game, batting average, OPS, and home runs. On top of that, it’s proven to be a station-to-station attack with it stealing a grand total of five bases (#26). There’s no reason to think the M’s will bust out here with it having issues against Abbott’s 4-seamer, curve, sweeper arsenal per Baseball Savant.
On the flipside, Spencer Steer and Co. have been ripping the cover off the ball with the offense averaging 6.0 runs per game (#3) by way of owning a collective .758 OPS and stealing a league-best 31 bases. The fastball has allowed Bryce Miller to tally a bunch of swings and misses (#27), but the ‘Natti has a handful of guys crushing that pitch. With Seattle averaging just over 3.0 runs per game against LHP, I think Abbott earns a second straight quality start and the offense sends Miller to the showers early. The seat under Scott Servais’s derrière will remain hot!
MLB SAME GAME PARLAY LEGS: REDS MONEYLINE + ABBOTT OVER PITCHING OUTS PROP + BROWN OVER HITS ALLOWED PROP
