The prior week’s regression unfortunately carried over into last Tuesday’s parlay picks. The Yankees dropped a 4-2 decision to the Orioles, and failed to exceed their team total after allowing Dean Kremer to toss seven innings and log the win. We looked golden to cash that Turnbull decision until the sixth inning when things went sideways. Though the Phillies ultimately won the game due to some ninth inning heroics, their bats still failed to get to Anderson like I expected. Thankfully we avoided taking the collar after the Ragans/Berrios matchup proved to be a pitcher’s duel after all. May the baseball gods be kinder with tonight’s parlay leg recommendations at Caesars Sportsbook – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Same Game Parlay:

I’m playing with fire here suggesting fading the Phillies as hot Bryce Harper and his mates have been for the better part of the last month, but I like the spot. At least early on with Jose Berrios set to square off against Christopher Sanchez. The Blue Jays right-hander has absorbed taking back-to-back losses against the Royals due to no fault of his own. He allowed eight hits (2 HR) and 4 ER through 12 innings pitched in those contests, but took losses each time due to his offense once again doing next to nothing; a disheartening theme for Toronto fans and bettors that’s seen the offense average 3.7 runs per game (#24) and bat .226 overall (#23).

Even so, I like this matchup against Sanchez who has been at his best within Citizens Bank Park where his ERA clocks in at 2.12 and K rate at 12.7 per nine innings. Toronto has had all kinds of issues hitting left-handed pitching with it scoring a measly 2.8 runs per game (#28) regardless of batting .251 as a team (#12). Though Philadelphia has been a menace against right-handed pitching in averaging a healthy 5.6 runs per game (#2), Berrios is an arm I’ll confidently back in the short term and expect him to keep the damage limited the first few times through the order. That paired with the BJs likely having their hands full with Sanchez will find me on the under of the first five innings.

• FIRST FIVE INNINGS UNDER 
• BERRIOS OVER PITCHING OUTS

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Same Game Parlay:

Since going into St. Louis and busting out the brooms on the Cardinals a few weeks back, I haven’t liked what I’ve been seeing from the Brewers. Milwaukee has only managed one series win through four tries which allowed the Cubs to catch them atop the NL Central standings. The offense has been one of the main reasons why with it averaging just 3.9 runs per game while getting some real shoddy performances from the starting rotation. One of those arms just so happens to be Colin Rea who has been all or nothing in his last four turns. We backed the righty in his most recent turn against Tampa Bay and was rewarded with six innings of shutout ball. The start before that, he was shelled for 3 HR and 5 ER by the Yankees.

While he’s the owner of a 2.30 ERA away from Miller Park, two of his three starts came against the Mets and Cardinals when each of their offenses were struggling mightily. If he fails to bring his “A” game to the yard for this one, it’s going to be awfully tough for the Brew Crew to compete with the Royals who will be sending a locked in Seth Lugo to the bump to make his eighth start of the baseball betting season. I never thought I’d ever say that about Lugo, but the right-hander is in peak form evidenced by his 5-1 record, 1.60 ERA and 1.022 WHIP. He’s gone seven innings in three of his last four turns, and enters this outing having tallied 17 K and only 4 BB in his last two starts against the Tigers and Blue Jays on the road. He’s held current sticks on the Brewers roster to a .189 batting average and .211 on-base percentage which leads me to believe the 34-year old will be in a position to score his sixth win of the year – crazy!

• ROYALS MONEYLINE
• REA OVER EARNED RUNS ALLOWED
• LUGO OVER PITCHING OUTS

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