We split last Thursday’s MLB Same Game Parlay Picks over at BetRivers Sportsbook. The first five innings played to an easy under with Braxton Garrett and Kyle Freeland only combining to give up three runs, but Garrett came two strikeouts away from toppling his K prop. Though the Padres sent Jake Irvin to the showers after just four innings, it took some end-game heroics from Rougned Odor whose ninth inning 3-run bomb allowed us to cash the other two legs of the parlay. It’s slim pickings Thursday, but let’s see if we can’t bang out a few parlay winners anyway – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Everything is up across the board for the Brew Crew’s Freddy Peralta - just not in a good way! His 4.64 ERA is a run+ higher than it was a season ago. He’s serving up 8.9 hits per nine after allowing 6.2 and 5.2 the prior two seasons. His 3.8 BB/9 is also the highest it’s been since his second year in the league. On top of that, he’s only striking out 2.52 batters per nine innings; an output normally over 3.00. Do you know what’s not down? His swinging strike rate (No. 31), hard contact rate (No. 22), and velocity (94.5 mph). The latter lets it be known that an injury isn’t playing a role.
As such, I firmly expect the righty to bounce back in short order and have this potential pitcher’s duel pegged as an opportunity to shine. Kevin Gausman looks every bit the part of a potential dark horse to win the AL Cy Young Award with the vet the owner of a 3.03 ERA while logging quality starts at a 73 percent clip. He’s currently offering up 17-1 odds at BetRivers if you wanta take a flier. Regardless, I expect both starting pitchers to dominate in the finale of this three-game set and exceed their respective pitching out props in the process.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: FIRST FIVE INNINGS UNDER + PERALTA OVER PITCHING OUTS + GAUSMAN OVER PITCHING OUTS
Cincinnati Reds vs. Boston Red Sox
Whoa Nelly! Hunter Greene is starting to blaze a trail folks! The Reds are also demolishing the baseball recently in averaging 6.7 runs per game since getting swept at home by the Yankees. I dig the makeup of this Cincy offense that’s readily able to attack any platoon splits thrown their way. As it is, the ‘Natti clocks in 12-6 and averages a healthy 5.9 runs per game against left-handed pitching. I get that Chris Sale has really ramped his output up in the month of May since getting out to a horrendous April start, but the Reds will be too attractive an underdog for me to pass on as locked in Greene has been over his last two starts.
The flame throwing righty just went into Wrigley and threw six no-hit innings while racking up 11 K against the Cubs. Before that, he tossed seven innings of 4 ER ball against the Yankees at home and also racked up a double-digit strikeout tally. That’s four hits allowed and a 21:5 K/BB ratio over his L/13 IP! Boston averages just short of 5.0 runs per game versus RHP but stands 16-19 in those matchups. It’s also fared well against the 4-seamer and slider, but Greene’s offerings are on a different level. Having ripped him in his lone Fenway appearance last year, the Reds will offer up an inflated ROI and there’s nothing I enjoy taking advantage of more when betting on sports than a rabid pup with teeth!
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: REDS MONEYLINE + REDS OVER TEAM TOTAL + SALE UNDER PITCHING OUTS
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Jesus Luzardo has added to our bankroll a number of times this MLB betting season and been a steadying force within the Marlins below average starting rotation. However, the left-hander just continues to give up way too many hits as evidenced by his lofty 9.7 hits per nine allowed. What’s allowed for his 3.68 FIP to stay in line with his 3.67 ERA has been an ability to limit walks (2.8/9) and tally outs via the strikeout (10.3/9). While San Diego rates amongst the bottom third of the league in K rate (23.8%), no team has been better at taking free passes than that of the Friars with their walk rate clocking in at a league-best 11.3 percent.
Though the Padres chime in 8-10 and average a paltry 3.8 runs per game against south paws (No. 23), they possess a number of bats that sport positive run values against the slider which has been the fuel to Luzardo’s early season success. It also crushes the 4-seamer! With Joe Musgrove coming off an eye-opening start against the Yankees, I think he has his way with the weak-hitting Marlins who’ve been equally as wretched versus RHP. Look for both starting pitchers to dominate early before the Padres ultimately find a way to cash in against the MLB odds late.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: PADRES MONEYLINE + FIRST FIVE INNINGS UNDER