Last Thursday’s MLB Same Game Parlays weren’t kind to the bottom line over at BetRivers Sportsbook. The Orioles surpassed their team total in the seventh and Tyler Anderson ended up going under his pitching outs prop, but the bullpen coughed up the lead in the eighth to hand us an L. It looked like a slugfest was in the cards early between the Yankees and Blue Jays with three combined runs scored in the first inning, but another didn’t cross the plate until the seventh with New York going on to win 4-2. We got a larger than normal slate to dig into this Thursday, so let’s jump in and see if we can’t add to the bottom line – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
The regression monster was bound to pay Kyle Freeland a visit. No way was the lefty to continue churning out counting stats the way he was throwing sub 90 mph fastballs to go along with his sub 90s off-speed stuff! That being said, I fully expect the southpaw to get right back to dominating the way he has most of the season running up against a Miami outfit nowhere near as deadly as Texas versus LHP. The Rangers rank out as the No. 1 hitting team in MLB versus lefties averaging nearly 8.0 runs per game. The Marlins clock in at No. 27 averaging 3.4 RPG. On top of that, Miami ranks out below average versus the sinker, slider, and curve per Baseball Savant’s run values. Freeland will be in a position to improve upon his 60 percent quality start percentage by keeping runs off the board early.
Braxton Garrett will be gunning for a third straight win coming off back-to-back solid efforts against Cincinnati and San Francisco. He enters start No. 9 having just tossed 6.1 innings of shutout ball at the Giants with eight strikeouts. Though he’s giving up 10.5 hits per nine innings, he’s issuing fewer than 2.0 walks while averaging 9.1 K per nine innings. His 3.75 FIP is nearly a run lower than his 4.60 ERA. Positive regression looks to have already begun, but I don’t foresee it ending in this spot against an injury riddled Rockies offense under the sun where the lefty has shined through five starts hurling to a 1.95 ERA and impressive 32:4 K/BB ratio. Colorado owns a near 27 percent K rate versus LHP and struggles as a whole versus the cutter which has been Garrett’s best pitch during his recent hot stretch. Though its Coors, Garrett’s in a great position to keep the mojo rising!
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: FIRST FIVE INNINGS UNDER + GARRETT OVER K PROP
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
It’s only a matter of time until San Diego starts hitting the living tar out of the baseball and cashing in on the baseball betting odds at BetRivers with regularity. With sluggers like Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Nelson Cruz on the roster, there’s absolutely no reason for the Padres to rank out amongst the bottom third of the league in the most pertinent of stat categories. You have to go back to the beginning of May to find the last time Bob Melvin’s squad won a series. I’m praying the Friars go down in defeat Hump Day night. Should that be the case, I fully expect them to take to the playing field hell-bent on taking this series.
There’s absolutely no excuse for them not to either running up against the BP gas can otherwise known as Jake Irvin. Washington is clearly letting the kid take his lumps and boy have they been big ones with the youngster serving up 6.0 walks and 8.5 hits per nine innings all the while averaging just 4.5 innings per start. If there’s one thing the Padres have done well to this point of the MLB betting season, its take walks doing so 11.0 percent of the time (No. 2). They’ve also crushed 4-seamers and sinkers which represent two of Irvin’s most heavily used pitches. There will be blood people! Though the righty is only serving up 1.0 home runs per nine, you might want to take a few beer money fliers on some Friars reaching the cheap seats in this one.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: PADRES MONEYLINE + PADRES OVER TEAM TOTAL + IRVIN UNDER PITCHING OUTS