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Last Friday’s MLB Same Game Parlays ended up 1-2 over at PointsBet Sportsbook due to a horrific showing from Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton pitching way above my expectations. The Phillies battled back from a 6-0 deficit to tie it in the seventh, but proceeded to give up the game-winning run in the bottom of the inning. Wheeler needed 90 pitches to register 11 outs! A pitcher that didn’t stink was Jon Gray who tossed seven shutout innings to exceed his pitching outs prop and lead Texas to the 2-0 triumph. Merrill Kelly shined in propelling the D’backs to the 3-2 win, but Morton was pretty darn good himself as well nearly doubling his K prop. Let’s kick off the weekend right with some winning parlay picks – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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Miami Marlins vs. Chicago White Sox
Through five starts, you can’t help but like what you see when it comes to Marlins rookie Eury Perez. He’s 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA and has only allowed 6.4 hits and racked up 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. But a deeper inspection under the hood finds a young fireballer that owns a 4.28 FIP and is serving up 4.1 walks per nine innings pitched. This will also only be the third road start of his professional career, and it’s arguably the toughest of the bunch with the righty set to combat a liquored up Guaranteed Rate on a Friday night. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher and that could come back to bite him in this venue.
The Palehose have been terribly inconsistent which finds them in the bottom half of the AL Central standings. However, the team looks to be in another one of its grooves having just swept the Tigers at home and then taking the series opener in the Bronx. Remember, Chicago was one of the perceived favorites to cash in on the divisional futures odds at the season’s outset. PointsBet currently has Tim Anderson and co. lined +850 underdogs to win it, and I think that offering is bursting with value. If the White Sox are to completely turn this around, Dylan Cease must start pitching like the staff ace many a fantasy baseballer drafted him to be at the outset of the season. As bad Chicago has been on the road, it sits a game over .500 as a host and I think they improve that record in the opener against the also streaking Fish.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: WHITE SOX MONEYLINE + PEREZ UNDER PITCHING OUTS
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Twins are a wounded bunch right now with power bats Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo once again on the IL and Royce Lewis currently sitting due to that tumble taken at first base against the Guardians on Sunday. Regression was bound to hit Sonny Gray after dominating the month of April to the tune of a 0.77 ERA and 4-0 record. While the ERA is only up to 2.15 and he owns a stellar 71:24 K/BB ratio, he’ll enter his 13th start off surrendering 10 hits and 3 ER to the freaking Guardians. He could easily give up another double-digit tally if the slide piece isn’t working tonight against Big Bad Vlad and co. as nasty Toronto has been versus the 4-seamer and sinker per Baseball Savant. The strikeout likely won’t be their either with Toronto owners of the fourth-best K rate in the league (20.1%).
While not enamored with Yusei Kikuchi whatsoever, the left-hander has put the BJs in a position to win in his last two starts against the Mets and Brewers. That’s been a trend throughout the 2023 MLB betting season with Toronto coming out victorious in nine of his 12 made starts. He’s been his best in the comforts of the Rogers Centre where he’s 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA and .237 BAA. Minnesota has been more formidable against right-handed pitching (4.7 RPG) than LHP (3.5 RPG), and enters this series weakened by the injury bug. I expect the home team to take advantage!
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: BLUE JAYS MONEYLINE + GRAY UNDER K PROP + GRAY UNDER PITCHING OUTS
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
If fading Yu Darvish, you want to do it when the Japanese import isn’t toeing the Petco bump. At home, No. 11 checks in 2-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .214 batting average against. It’s been noticeably different on the road however with Darvish also 2-2 but the owner of an inflated 6.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .248 BAA. Adding to backing the Rox as home dogs in this spot is the fact that Darvish stands 1-1 with a 5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .278 BAA through five career Coors starts. That paired with the Friars simply being unable to kick it into high gear makes fading them as inflated road chalk easier to stomach. This still isn’t a team to trust regardless of how talented and lucrative the everyday roster is.
The kicker here however is Austin Gomber. Though the righty just failed to see the third inning against the Kansas City Royals of all teams, Colorado still went on to win that game and stands 7-1 in his last eight made starts. I have no idea why, but this team that currently sits 10 games under .500 somehow finds a way to win when the lefty takes the hill. The Rockies have played to an even record at home to date ($226) and enter this division rivalry having taken each of their last three series against the Mets, Marlins, and Reds.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: ROCKIES MONEYLINE + DARVISH UNDER PITCHING OUTS
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