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The marquee event of Major League Baseball’s All-Star Break, the Home Run Derby surpassed the actual game years ago in terms of fan and betting interest. And while the leading home run hitters in each league (all stats through games of July 5) won’t be taking part, the field of eight has plenty of pop combining for close to 150 homers. Reigning champ Juan Soto isn’t competing, but the winner of the previous two Derby’s is. New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso wasn’t favored on Julio Rodriguez in the semifinal round.
Rodriguez had a startling debut reaching the final round in his first Derby. The young phenom has the experience and also has home field advantage with the Derby taking place inside the Seattle Mariners’ home ball park. In what some might consider a surprise Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rodriguez each have 13 homers, the second-fewest among the field, but have the second and third shortest Mookie Betts are all making their first Home Run Derby appearance.
Check out BetRivers sportsbook for the 2023 Home Run Derby taking place Monday, July 10, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Wager on the outright winner, which players will make it to the final round and who will hit the longest homer among other options that are available.
2023 Home Run Derby Odds
25 Pete Alonso +325
13 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +350
13 Julio Rodriguez +525
25 Luis Robert Jr. +600
22 Adolis Garcia +600
23 Mookie Betts +800
16 Randy Arozarena +800
11 Adley Rutchsman +1100
2023 Home Run Derby Field
There have been numerous changes to Derby rules since Dave Parker won the inaugural event in 1985, but things have been mostly the same since 2015. Players will compete in a single-elimination bracket system with four minutes to hit as many home runs as possible. The winner proceeds to the next round with the loser grabbing some pine. The amount of prize money was increased a few years ago with Alonso grabbing $1 million of that for his win in 2019.
It’s easy to see why Alonso was tabbed the betting favorite. A powerful slugger who won the event twice and seems to enjoy taking part in the Derby make him a strong Luis Robert Jr., who is tied with Alonso for the most homers in the field with 25.
The fan favorite is obviously Rodriguez, who was the first to commit to the Derby with it being in his own yard. While the numbers are down from last year’s Rookie of the Year campaign, Rodriguez set the bar high. And if experience plays a role he’s covered in that area. Rodriguez put on a show at Dodger Stadium last year belting 32 homers in the first round and 31 in the second.
I think Robert and Betts are undervalued at their price and are certainly worth a look. Robert is having a breakout season with a career high in homers. He also fits the mold with his size giving him an advantage to last three grueling rounds. Betts isn’t as big physically, but his stick has been monstrous with 23 bombs, putting him on pace for the first 40-homer season of his career.
I guess we should mention Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since he’s the second favorite. And he put on a show in 2019 blasting a Derby record 91 home runs in Cleveland. Hitting the long ball has been a struggle for Vlad this season with only 13, but he’s hit the ball consistently hard all season. And the name of this game is hitting the ball hard and long. I’m not too keen on the underdogs Randy Arozarena and Adley Rutchsman. The power numbers haven’t been there and going deep for three rounds is a tough task.
Since June 1 only Shohei Ohtani has hit more homers than Robert. And as the top seed he faces Rutchsman, who is not known as a power first hitter, in the first round. I like the breakout season to continue for the White Sox slugger making him my
Home Run Derby Prediction: Luis Robert Jr. ( +600 )
Check out the latest MLB betting odds at BetRivers.
