West Coast Conference Tournament Picks
March 1, 2022
Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchups Picks
March 2, 2022
Northern Iowa last won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament back in 2016. It won the prior year as well. Though Ben Jacobson’s Panthers won the regular season title by ousting Loyola in overtime to lock down this year’s regular season title, it’s the Ramblers that linemakers at FanDuel Sportsbook currently offer up as the odds on favorite to cut down the nets and punch an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Listed below are the final regular season standings along with each teams listed odds of winning the MVC tourney. Favored Loyola actually ended up the No. 4 seed and gets a tough quarterfinal matchup against the No. 5 Bradley Braves who tested them mightily in the regular season. Prior conquests that include both regular season and tourney championships has created a bout of recency bias with this year’s installment of the Ramblers. They’re good, but not nearly as dominant as prior versions. There is value in looking elsewhere for this year’s installment of Arch Madness. Along with the Ramblers, here are my underdog and longshot selections to win the Missouri Valley Tournament that tips-off March 3 from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO.
MVC Tournament Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Northern Iowa +490
Missouri State +490
Drake +500
Loyola Chicago +130
Bradley +700
Southern Illinois +1900
Valparaiso +12000
Illinois State +18000
Indiana State +11000
Evansville +50000
Favorite to Bet: Loyola Ramblers +130
The Ramblers will be the auto bet for a number of fresh fish yet to experience the joy and heartbreak of Arch Madness. They’re the tournament’s reigning champs having won it two of the last four seasons. They’re also the only MVC entrant with efficiency ratings in the top-50 for both offense (No. 29) and defense (No. 50) per the current Pomeroy Ratings. The analytics and holdovers from prior championship teams make it known that Loyola is a team to be taken seriously. Its offense is efficient and defense unforgiving. Those are intangibles that title winning teams most always bring to the table. The offense thrives from both 2-point (No. 11) and 3-point range (No. 7) with Lucas Williamson continuing to be a special player that averages just over 14 points, nearly five rebounds, and almost three assists per game. He’s one of the most experienced players in the conference and will do whatever it takes to prevent the selection committee from deciding the team’s fate come Selection Sunday. Loyola currently offers up a plus-money return, but that likely won’t be the case once novice bettors catch wind – Buy Now!
Underdog to Bet: Missouri State Bears +490
The Bears invade St. Louie winners in five of their last six games with the lone blemish coming in the form of a 20-point beat down at Northern Iowa. The Panthers simply had Mizzou State’s number this season after taking the first meeting by a single point. It split with Loyola and also took both meetings from Drake. Anchored by Isaiah Mosley (20.0 PPG) and Gaige Prim (16.3 PPG/7.7 RPG), the Bears have one of the more dominating guard/forward combos the MVC currently has to offer. Because of it, Missouri State’s offense ranks out as the most efficient in the conference per KenPom.com. While the defense leaves a bit to be desired, I’m not buying the teams near 17 percent implied probability of being the last team standing. Their odds of doing so should be closer to 2-1 which equates to them cutting down the nets better than 30 percent of the time. This is a confident bunch that exceeded linemaker’s expectations over the course of the regular season. They’ll get the winner of the 7/10 matchup in the quarters and then take on Drake or Southern Illinois in the semis; teams they went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against.
Longshot to Bet: Illinois State Redbirds +18000
Do I really think a team that managed just five wins through 18 played MVC games has a realistic shot of shocking the college basketball betting world? No. But March has arrived and crazy things always seem to find their way to the surface this time of year. Keep in mind, Dan Muller’s kids were in the thick of the MVC title race at the end of January, but then tragedy struck when big man Sy Chatman was lost for the season due to a knee injury. The Redbirds have been attempting to replace his 13.5 points and 6.1 rebounds per game ever since. That being said, no player in conference averages more points per game than Antonio Reeves who’s tickled the twine for an average just over 20 points per game. The dude can flat-out fill it up and he’s just the type of player to take an Illinois State team with such long odds on an unforeseen swoop into the deep rounds of this tourney. While it would take knocking off the regular season title holder and reigning tourney champs to seal the deal, it’s still a dart throw I’m willing to take. Should they oust the Sycamores and pull the upset of the Panthers, it would at the very least create an excellent hedging opportunity.
