Steyn City Championhip Picks
March 15, 2022
Steyn City Championship Matchups Picks
March 16, 2022
It’s not often a higher seeded team finds itself dogged by linemakers in the first round of NCAA tournament betting, but that’s exactly the case for the No. 6 seed Colorado State Rams who will battle the B1G rep Michigan Wolverines in the very first matchup of the Big Dance early Thursday afternoon. While it’s not by a substantial margin, Juwan Howard’s No. 11 seed Wolverines are currently laying a possession in hopes of bettering last year’s march into the Elite Eight. As for Niko Medved and the Rams, this will be their first Big Dance experience under his watch as well as the first overall for the program in eight seasons. That could likely be the main reason why DraftKings Sportsbook currently has them catching a bucket in this matchup. These squads are said to be very evenly matched going by the current Pomeroy Ratings with CSU clocking in at No. 31 and Michigan at No. 33. The T-Rankings even have Michigan winning this one by said point spread. Even so, I’m sticking to my guns and will remain stubborn when it comes to the Rams who padded my bankroll all season en route to finally punching a ticket. David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens are no joke, and that’s something I fully expect a much lesser Wolverines outfit than last season to discover right quick!
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds
Michigan -2
Colorado State +2
O/U 139
Betting Odds Analysis
The Wolverines initially opened as 2.5-point favorites with the O/U set at 140. Early betting has seen a majority of the action go the way of the Rams. Hopefully it’s not only because novice bettors see the No. 6 next to Colorado State and the No. 11 next to Michigan and auto bet the higher seed catching points. Regardless, CSU has taken in 58 percent of the bets and nearly 90 percent of the money forcing linemakers to drop the impost down to +2. Michigan played to a 6-7 SU record in true road games, and went 2-2 SU and ATS in its four neutral bouts. Colorado State went 8-3 SU on the true road and won five of six on neutral courts (3-3 ATS). The total has been bet down to 139 with 60 percent of bets expecting a low scorer. However, 56 percent of the money expects points to hit the board. The Wolverines played to the over at an 18-12 clip, while Colorado State played to low scorers 19 of 30 times.
Michigan Wolverines
Inconsistent is the first word that comes to mind when describing the 2021-22 Michigan Wolverines overall body of work. While the team came up with some big wins over the last month of the regular season – @Iowa, Rutgers, Michigan State, @Ohio State – the issue ultimately prevented them from improving upon their NCAA tournament seeding after bowing out early in the Big Ten tourney. Mind you, they blew a 13 point lead against Indiana in the quarters! This is a team that owns the No. 38 ranked field goal percentage in the land, but also had major issues connecting from deep (No. 167) while also struggling from the charity stripe (No. 102). It won’t put the better offense (No. 76) or defense (No. 188) on the hardwood in this matchup.
Colorado State Rams
Gritty. That’s what comes to mind immediately when I attempt to describe the countless family members and friends calling me for the first time in a year asking about my perception of every team in the NCAA tournament. Had CSU not headscratchingly gotten swept by the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, it would’ve won the MWC regular season title outright. The Mountain West Conference was incredibly competitive this year. It will prove to be the main reason why the team’s that qualified for the Big Dance do well in the coming weeks. The Rams are a team that marches an efficient offense onto the hardwood (No. 20) that limits turnovers (No. 21), and backs it up with tough nosed style of defensive play while vacuuming up a majority of opponent misses (No. 58). While not a complete package, it’s pretty darn close!
The Wager
If you’ve followed my betting action this season, you know the Colorado State Rams were one of my ride-or-dies from way back in November. Absolutely nothing has changed. While I’m a bit hesitant about this being David Roddy and company’s first taste of March basketball as a team, it won’t stop me from touting them in this matchup against a very beatable Wolverines outfit. I can’t wait to see him battle Hunter Dickinson in the paint since I know he won’t back down! Michigan’s inability to force CSU into offensive miscues will allow for the Rams to run their offense as designed. Its ability to battle Michigan on the glass will also prevent the Wolverines from banking on second and third scoring opportunities which proved to be crucial towards their offensive success to this point. Big Blue is susceptible in the paint defensively (No. 221), and that will be the key towards Colorado State advancing and us cashing this dog ticket in!
