Luis Alberto Lopez vs. Joet Gonzalez Picks, Predictions, and Odds

Joet Gonzalez is hoping that the third time will be the charm on Friday night when he takes on Luis Alberto Lopez for the IBF featherweight championship. Gonzalez (26-3 with 15 knockouts) challenged for the WBO featherweight title in 2019 and 2021, but he lost unanimous decisions to Shakur Stevenson and Emanuel Navarrete. This time he will be facing Luis Alberto Lopez who won the belt with a majority decision over Josh Warrington last December and successfully defended his title with a fifth-round knockout of Michael Conlan in May. Lopez (28-2 with 16 knockouts) is a heavy favorite by the boxing betting odds, but it is worth noting that he is at a significant reach disadvantage.

Boxing fans will get to see Luis Alberto Lopez defend his IBF featherweight strap against challenger Joet Gonzalez on Friday, September 15, 2023, around midnight ET. The main event starts around 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ from American Bank Center in Corpus Christi, Texas.

Boxing Betting Odds at Caesars Sportsbook

Luis Alberto Lopez -800
Joet Gonzalez +500

Champion Luis Alberto Lopez turned pro back in November 2015. He won his first 12 fights before suffering a defeat by split decision when he defended a regional belt in Mexico. That proved to be just a minor hiccup though as he was challenging for the vacant WBO International featherweight title less than a year later.

Lopez ended up winning the belt by technical decision after an accidental head butt left Ray Ximenez unable to continue. At the time, Lopez was ahead on all three score cards, so it was merely a little bittersweet of a victory. Unfortunately, he went on to lose the title two-and-a-half months later to Ruben Villa.

Since that latest defeat, Lopez has won 11 straight fights. He made quick work of most of his opponents, securing eight of those wins by knockout in seven rounds or less. Lopez was an underdog by the boxing betting line against Josh Warrington with the IBF featherweight title on the line back in December 2022, but he won a narrow majority decision to claim his first major belt. Afterwards, he claimed the fight shouldn’t have been that close as Warrington was not fighting fair. Lopez stated, “I knew he was a dirty fighter coming in, but it was worse than I thought it would be, he even hit me on my legs. I don’t think the referee did his job in protecting the fighters tonight.” We saw Lopez roar back in his next fight with a convincing fifth round TKO win over Michael Conlan almost four months ago.

There was a lot of buzz around Joet Gonzalez a few years ago. Gonzalez won the gold medal at the US National Championships in 2012, establishing himself as a featherweight to watch when he turned pro. He lived up to the hype by winning his first 19 matches before challenging for a title, and he won a split decision victory over Rafael Rivera to claim the WBO-NABO featherweight title. Three more victories set up a major title fight with Shakur Stevenson for the WBO featherweight title, but Gonzalez proved to be no match for Stevenson.

Stevenson won 11 of 12 rounds on all three judges’ scorecards to prove he deserved to be a -500 favorite by the boxing wagering odds. That loss sent Gonzalez back down the ladder, but another victory led to him facing Emanuel Navarrete for the same title a couple years ago. Gonzalez put up more of a fight this time, but Navarrete won a unanimous decision as well.

Despite the two previous title losses, I’m going to go with Joet Gonzalez at this price. Luis Alberto Lopez is not as strong of a fighter as either Stevenson or Navarrete, and Gonzalez does have an advantage. Gonzalez is 5’6 with a 70-inch reach, while Lopez is 5’4 with a 66.5-inch reach. That significant reach edge should prove to be a real deciding factor if Gonzalez is patient. Needless to say, that makes Gonzalez at +500 a real tempting underdog, especially if you want to put him in some longshot parlays too.

Play: Joet Gonzalez to Win