Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

A total of 20 horses will go to the post for the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 7 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The Kentucky Derby is oftentimes an excellent race for longshots because anything can happen when 20 horses battle for position. The morning line favorite for the 148^th running of the Kentucky Derby is Zandon at odds of 3-1. Following closely on the morning line odds is Epicenter at odds of 7-2. Post time for the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Saturday is 6:57 p.m. Eastern on NBC. Let’s look at the Kentucky Derby field and Kentucky Derby longshots.

2022 Kentucky Derby Field

(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line Odds)

1. Mo Donegal, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1
2. Happy Jack, Doug O’Neill, Rafael Bejarano, 30-1
3. Epicenter, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 7-2
4. Summer Is Tomorrow, Bhupat Seemar, Mickael Barzalona, 30-1
5. Smile Happy, Kenny McPeek, Corey Lanerie, 20-1
6. Messier, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 8-1
7. Crown Pride, Koichi Shintani, Christophe Lemaire, 20-1
8. Charge It, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 20-1
9. Tiz the Bomb, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 30-1
10. Zandon, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 3-1
11. Pioneer of Medina, Todd Pletcher, Joe Bravo, 30-1
12. Taiba, Tim Yakteen, Mike Smith, 12-1
13. Simplification, Antonio Sano, Jose Ortiz, 20-1
14. Barber Road, John Ortiz, Reylu Gutierrez, 30-1
15. White Abarrio, Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione, 10-1
16. Cyberknife, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 20-1
17. Classic Causeway, Brian Lynch, Julien Leparoux, 30-1
18. Tawny Port, Brad Cox, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
19. Zozos, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 20-1
20. Ethereal Road, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 30-1

You may not even realize that two thirds of the horses in the 2022 Kentucky Derby are listed with odds of 20-1 or more on the morning line. That gives us a lot of horses to consider in terms of Kentucky Derby longshots. For the purposes of this article, we’ll throw out the six horses that are listed at odds of less than 20-1. I think Epicenter is a really good horse who should win the Derby, but when 20 horses get together anything is possible. If Epicenter doesn’t win, then this race looks to be wide-open and one of the longshots could steal the race.

Before we get to the horses we like, let’s throw a bunch of the longshots out of the running. The two shippers who finished first and second in the UAE Derby are Crown Pride and Summer is Tomorrow. In the last two plus decades a total of 16 horses who raced in the UAE came over and run in the Derby and none finished in the money.

Tiz the Bomb is really a turf horse who probably shouldn’t be running in the Derby and his trainer, Kenny McPeek has never won the Derby in six tries.

Ethereal Road is trained by D. Wayne Lukas who has won the Derby four times, but Lukas is about the only positive for this horse who hasn’t been a threat in recent races.

Barber Road has yet to show he can do anything more than get close, as he has four second place finishes against two wins. He was no threat to Un Ojo in the Rebel Stakes or to Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby.

Pioneer of Medina is trained by Todd Pletcher and that is about the only positive, as he hasn’t beaten a good field of horses in his career.

Simplification might get some attention because he won the Fountain of Youth and finished third in the Florida Derby but I am not bucking history. No Florida-bred horse has won the Kentucky Derby since Silver Charm in 1997.

Happy Jack was no threat in the big California races, but he earned enough points to slip into the Derby. He is no real threat to win.

Tawny Port has had numerous chances against some of the top horses in his field and has yet to show he is a serious threat.

Classic Causeway looked good in the Sam F. Davis the Tampa Bay Derby, but he didn’t run well in the Florida Derby. Maybe he bounces back, but he still looks in over his head in this race.

Live Kentucky Derby Longshots

We eliminated almost all of the longshots, leaving us with Charge It, Smile Happy, Zozos and Cyberknife. Let’s look at those four horses.

Charge It is trained by Todd Pletcher and is the son of Tapit. He had a rough trip in the Florida Derby and still managed to finish second. He is trained by Todd Pletcher and if jockey Luis Saez can keep him out of trouble he could be a real threat to win.

Smile Happy was very well respected last year after his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The horse will need to show closing speed to win this race and we don’t know if he has it. He ran well in the Blue Grass Stakes and was right with Zandon for a long time. Smile Happy is not without a chance in the Derby.

Zozos is trained by Brad Cox and he has run competitively with Epicenter in the past. He has looked good in drills leading up to the Derby and if things break right he could be in the mix.

Cyberknife is also trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux. He proved he can win with a good race in the Arkansas Derby.

Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

While I give Zozos and Cyberknife a slight chance to win the Derby, I think there is more value on Charge It and Smile Happy. I think Charge It has the best chance, but I’ll take a shot with both Charget It and Smiley Happy to win and put them into some exotic tickets with Epicenter.

Check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.