Houston Texans Season Win Total Odds, Pick & Prediction

The Houston Texans have had a turbulent few seasons, last finishing with a disappointing 3-13-1 record that closed with a win that cost it the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. This team doesn’t even understand how to lose right! It must be mentioned however that the Texans did find a way to go 8-8-1 against the spread which lends credence to the fact that the betting market underestimated the team throughout the regular season. As they look ahead to the upcoming NFL betting season, PointsBet Sportsbook has set their win total odds at 6.5, raising questions about whether they can more than double last year’s win output to cash tickets for their wagering supporters. Let’s dive into the Houston Texans’ season win total odds, analyze their schedule strength, and provide a comprehensive betting analysis on whether to go over or under their projected outlook.

Houston Texans: Egregious Expectations

Long gone are the dominant days of Deshaun Watson spearheading a potent offensive attack and J.J. Watt anchoring one of the more intimidating defensive fronts in the game. Since each played their way off the roster, the Texans have logged a grand total of 11 wins over the last three seasons failing to eclipse the mark each time. Last year’s lackluster performance led to the firing of head coach Lovie Smith, who was unable to turn things around after being promoted from defensive coordinator. QB Davis Mills struggled terribly, finishing at the bottom of various quarterback categories while also failing to provide a long-term solution under center. Ranked amongst the bottom third of the league in the most pertinent of stat categories on both sides of the ball, upper management is crossing its fingers with the hope that first round draft picks QB C.J. Stroud and EDGE Will Anderson help bring the franchise back to its glory days in short order.

Bet the Houston Texans Season Win Total at PointsBet Sportsbook

Houston Texans Season Wins Total: 6.5

PointsBet opened the Texans win total up at 5.5, but the betting market has since bet it up a full game to 6.5 with heavier juice currently attached to the low side of the impost. The complete overhaul of the coaching staff paired with what was done in both the NFL Draft and free agency looks to have many an NFL bettor drinking the Texans Kool-Aid and coming back for second and third servings. While DeMeco Ryans and the new staff will likely turn this sinking ship around at some point, it’s a tall ask of them to do it so quickly with the overall roster still lacking the talent and depth needed to pull off such a feat. I get that they go from playing what Sharp Football Analysis predicted would be the fifth toughest schedule strength to the seventh easiest in 2023, but I’m still not buying into what the bulls are saying when it comes to investing on the Texans exceeding expectations.

Case for the Over

One reason to consider betting on the Texans to surpass their season win total is the arrival of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Selected with the second overall pick in the draft, the former Ohio State Buckeye exhibited upper level potential throughout his stay in Columbus. With a talented group of wide receivers, including newcomer Robert Woods, holdover Nico Collins, and second-year rookie John Metchie III, Stroud has the potential to elevate the Texans’ offense and provide a significant upgrade over last season’s performance. Additionally, RB Dameon Pierce, who had a solid rookie season, could take the next step and become a reliable weapon in the Texans’ backfield.

DeMeco Ryans brings a wealth of experience as the former defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. His track record of leading top-ten defenses bodes well for the Texans’ defensive improvement. Furthermore, the Texans made a bold move by trading up to draft edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. from Alabama. Anderson’s presence should bolster the Texans’ pass rush and help address their struggles with allowing explosive plays. Another factor working in favor of the Texans going over is their division, the AFC South. Compared to others, the AFC South has a relatively weak lineup, increasing Houston’s chances of securing wins against their opponents. With a favorable schedule that avoids the top Super Bowl contenders, the Texans have an opportunity to capitalize on their divisional matchups and exceed expectations.

Case for the Under

While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Texans’ chances of surpassing their season win total, several factors could contribute to them falling short. One concern is the adjustment period for rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. While he possesses immense talent, rookie quarterbacks often face challenges in their inaugural NFL campaign. Stroud may struggle against aggressive defenses and could face difficulties if his pass catchers are unable to create separation.

Speaking of receivers, the Texans’ offensive additions in free agency, such as Robert Woods, Devin Singletary, and Dalton Schultz, may lack the explosiveness needed to elevate the offense. With Woods coming off a lackluster season and the other additions being more role players than game-changers, the Texans’ offense may struggle to generate big plays that consistently put points on the board. Furthermore, the Texans’ schedule, while relatively favorable, still presents challenges. The team’s early road games against the Baltimore Ravens and the Jacksonville Jaguars are likely to be problematic, especially for a rookie quarterback. Additionally, their late-season matchups against divisional rivals, including the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts, could prove to be tough tests.

Houston Texans Schedule

Week 1: at Ravens

Week 2: vs. Colts

Week 3: at Jaguars

Week 4: vs. Steelers

Week 5: at Falcons

Week 6: vs. Saints

Week 7: Bye Week

Week 8: at Panthers

Week 9: vs. Buccaneers

Week 10: at Bengals

Week 11: vs. Cardinals

Week 12: vs. Jaguars

Week 13: vs. Broncos

Week 14: at Jets

Week 15: at Titans

Week 16: vs. Browns

Week 17: vs. Titans

Week 18: at Colts

Houston Texans Season Win Total Analysis

The Houston Texans will attempt to turn the page and completely forget about the last three seasons that were overlooked by three separate coaches. While there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the team’s chances of surpassing their season win total, there are also potential obstacles that could prevent them from achieving this goal. As an NFL bettor, it is crucial to consider all factors, such as the development of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, the effectiveness of the Texans’ offensive additions, and the competitiveness of their divisional matchups. While a fan of what Houston did to dramatically improve the overall talent on the roster in the offseason, it’s still got a ways to go before getting itself out of the AFC South’s basement. I’d even go as far as betting under their alternate win total at a more attractive plus-money return!

Houston Texans Season Win Total Prediction: Under 6.5 -140

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