Forget A.J. Brown, Hammer DeVonta Smith’s Receiving Yards Prop on MNF

By Mike Rose

We ended up splitting our wide receiver props over at PointsBet Sportsbook in Week 9, but did go on to smash our big bets on the over of Davante Adams’ receiving yard and reception props. I said the Raiders stud wide receiver was in line to be Week 9’s WR1, and that’s exactly where he ended up after shredding Jacksonville’s secondary for 146 yards and 10 receptions. Unfortunately, the fun ended there with T.J. Hockenson destroying his receiving yards prop after seamlessly sliding into the Vikings offensive attack. Gerald Everett also got lost in the mix of Justin Herbert spreading 43 passes out amongst five pass catchers. While we got the targets (8), Everett only managed to haul in five for a measly 36 scoreless yards preventing us from cashing the over of his receiving yards prop.


My wide receiver props have more or less juiced out the last few weeks and that’s unacceptable. Let’s get Back in Black Week 10!


Bet Week 10 WR Props at PointsBet Sportsbook


Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -115


This matchup between the Browns and Dolphins looks to be a breeding ground for fantasy goodness with both teams sporting top-10 scoring offenses. Though Miami’s defensive strength comes with stopping the run (No. 8 in DVOA), it’s still going to have its hands full getting in the way of Nick Chubb. That means its lesser pass defense (No. 31 in DVOA) is going to have its hands full contending with the likes of Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Even David Njoku if the big guy is good to go!


DPJ has been a steady performer for Cleveland’s air attack in recent weeks having gone for at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last five starts. He’s averaged 75+ yards receiving over the last three with an average of just 5.0 targets per game. He’s a big-play threat waiting to happen evidenced by his 13.9 yards per reception and 11.4 average depth of target. With the Fins paying more attention to Amari, look for Peoples-Jones to once again make the most of his limited opportunities and exceed his receiving yards prop for the sixth straight time.


Points-Bet-Banner-Sep-29-2022-03-57-25-54-PMGeorge Pickens Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -120


I’m extremely bullish on the Steelers against the Saints coming out of the bye. Mike Tomlin’s squad has now had a couple weeks to figure it all out, and I firmly expect to see a different offense take to the gridiron at Heinz Field when this one kicks off Sunday afternoon. With Chase Claypool now doing work in Chicago with Justin Fields, more target share has opened up for the rookie whom I still believe has an excellent shot to take home the Rookie of the Year Award.


I’m expecting the window of opportunity to make bank on this stellar pass catching threat to be short, as I fully expect him to hit the ground running and never look back. Especially against a Saints pass defense that had conceded a near 67 percent catch rate in Weeks 5-8 before the Ravens took the air out of the ball last Monday night. George Pickens’ receiving yards prop has gone off the board in the 36-47 range over the last month. I’m comfortably betting the over up to 55 with the rookie likely to be a focal point of the offense moving forward.


Courtland Sutton Over 54.5 Receiving Yards -115


Sutton has failed to surpass his receiving yards impost in three straight games. He averaged a pedestrian 16.7 yards per game and averaged 2.0 receptions during that stretch. If the Broncos are to turn this thing around, it’s going to need its premiere pass catcher excelling at what he’s paid to do – catch passes and score touchdowns! No better time than now to bust out of a funk running up against a Tennessee defense ranked No. 30 against the pass in allowing better than 275 yards per game.


On top of that, the Titz are coming off an extended physical game against Kansas City which could find the defense struggling to keep up with Denver’s well-rested pass catching corps as the game plays out. As bad it’s been for Courtland Sutton over the last month, he still ranks seventh in the league in terms of air yards (849). It could seriously take just one big strike from Russell Wilson downfield to end the under streak, but I’m banking on No. 14 putting forth one of his best overall showings against a porous and fatigued Tennessee secondary.


DeVonta Smith Over 50.5 Receiving Yards -120


The Commanders could be live in Monday night’s throw down with the Eagles. As such, I’ve already hit the under of Miles Sanders rushing yards prop with Washington a much tougher nut to crack on the ground (No. 2 in DVOA) than through the air (No. 25 in DVOA). As such, I’m expecting Jalen Hurts and his pass catchers to thrive against the Commandos who he ripped for 340 yards and 3 TD when the teams collided back in Week 3.


That matchup proved both Eagles wide receivers could thrive with A.J. Brown going for 85 yards and 1 TD while DeVonta Smith led the way with 169 yards and a score of his own. With Brown making the most noise in recent weeks, I’m expecting Jack Del Rio to pay less attention to Smith; at least early on. That should allow him to surpass his modest receiving yards prop that should surface in the low 50s. In three career starts versus Washington, DeVonta has averaged 87.7 yards and 11.4 yards per reception on an average of 7.6 targets. This kids gonna boom Monday night!