Final Four Odds and Picks

The Final Four is set for Saturday in Houston, with No. 9 Florida Atlantic taking on No. 5 San Diego State in the first game, while No. 5 Miami takes on No. 4 Connecticut in the nightcap. Three of the teams will be making their first-ever Final Four appearance, while Connecticut has been there before. The Aztecs are a slight favorite over the Owls in the first game, while the Huskies are favored over the Hurricanes in the second game. The game between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State figures to be low scoring, while we should see a fair amount of points in the game between Miami and Connecticut. Let’s look at both games and Final Four picks.

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Saturday, April 1, 2023

Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State -2 (131.5) 6:09 pm Eastern (CBS)

Both of these schools will be making their first Final Four appearance. San Diego State is all about defense, as they allowed just 62.9 points per game. On the other side, Florida Atlantic is more balanced, and they averaged 78 points per game. This game could come down to which team imposes their will. If the Owls can create mismatches and find ways to score, they will win, but if the Aztecs play stifling defense then San Diego State has the edge.

The Owls have plenty of scoring options and they may be the team that can stretch the Aztecs defense. Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin are the leading scorers, but Nick Boyd and Michael Forrest can also score from the outside and Vladislav Goldin is a 7-foot-1 center who can create mismatches.

San Diego State has eight players that average at least six points per game but they don’t have anyone who really takes over. Matt Bradley and Darrion Trammel are counted on as the main scorers.

Florida Atlantic has shown they can play with anyone and at any pace. They will need to adapt again against a very stout San Diego State defense. The Aztecs play very tough 3-point defense so if the Owls struggle from the 3-point line they are in trouble in this game.

Final Four Pick

I lean toward the Owls, as I simply don’t like San Diego State’s offense at all, but I think the better play is the total. I can’t see anything other than a hard-fought low scoring game, so I will go under the total.

Miami, Florida vs. Connecticut -5.5 (149.5) 8:49 pm Eastern (CBS)

The late game has Connecticut a solid favorite over Miami. The Huskies have looked unstoppable so far, winning by 22.5 points per game in the tournament. The Huskies will be looking to win their fifth national championship. The Hurricanes present a good test with an experienced roster and a coach in Jim Larranaga who has plenty of tourney experience.

Connecticut has plenty of offensive firepower, led by Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins. They also have capable scorers in Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban. The Huskies not only can score, but they can play good defense, something Miami can’t do.

The Hurricanes feature four solid scorers in Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack. There is no denying that when Miami gets hot they can beat anyone, but the Hurricanes don’t play much defense. They got away with it by outscoring teams for much of the season, but Connecticut looks loaded. And it seems very unlikely Miller can play another perfect game as he did against Texas.

Final Four Pick

I have followed Miami closely all season and they are a team that scores a lot of points but also gives up a lot. This game has all the looks of a track meet and while that should favor the Hurricanes, the problem for Miami is that they don’t make enough defensive stops to win against top teams. They were fortunate that Texas went cold in the last game. I don’t expect Connecticut to have that problem. I’ll lay the points with the Huskies and go over the total.

Check out the latest Final Four odds at PointsBet.