USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins Pac-12 Betting Odds and Prediction
March 3, 2022
Atlantic 10 Tournament Odds and Picks
March 7, 2022
Written by Mike Rose
The calendar has turned to the month of March. It’s starting to get a bit warmer out. Days are getting a bit longer. The Boys of Summer have reported for Spring Training; wait no, stop the band. That hasn’t happened. But what has already started taking place is conference tournaments from some of the lesser knowns out there. The meat and potatoes of conference tournament season begins next week. With that, I wanted to throw out a few pointers in hopes of helping college basketball bettors limit exposure and single out scenarios in some of the more lucrative time-tested spots to help add to the bottom line. The betting options will be copious. The action will be non-stop. But don’t let that allow the folks at DraftKings Sportsbook to destroy your bankroll a week ahead of one of the greatest spectacles in all of sports! While none of these situational spots should be followed blindly like they’re etched in stone, they must be taken into account when breaking down the daily conference tournament betting lines.
Target Rested Teams
There will undoubtedly be a number of low seeded teams that make deep unforeseen runs in their respective conference tournaments. However, the odds are always stacked heavily against them advancing once the better teams start popping up on the docket; especially when the team yet to play is facing an opponent playing on successive days. Favorites in the 6-7 point range squaring off against an unrested opponent that covered its previous game have won over 87 percent of the time and covered at a near 55 percent clip. Those game types also played to low scorers nearly 56 percent of the time. Under those same parameters, small favorites and short dogs (+/-3) have won nearly 65 percent of the time and covered at an insane 63 percent clip. Due to the teams being closer in team strength, there was no advantage in betting the total one way or the other. Regardless, these winning percentages both from outright and point spread perspectives let it be known just how tough it is for Cinderella to make real noise come conference tournament time. For every Oregon State of last season or Syracuse from back in 2006, there’s plenty more that got their glass slipper shattered before getting comfortable with the fit.
It’s Impossible to beat a Team Three Times
This is one of the more popular misnomers out there. Team A defeated Team B both times in the regular season. On top of that, they covered each time as well. So naturally, they’re the better team and will undoubtedly go on to dismantle them in the conference tournament should their paths cross a third straight time. Right? Well, that’s not what every Tom, Dick and Harry will tell you even though the evidence hardly paints that picture. Even so, the frame of mind makes it seem that the team looking to avoid being swept hits at an 80 percent clip when in reality it’s much closer than you think. Dating back 30 or so years, the team that swept the regular season rivalry has gone on to cover the closing spread 52 percent of the time. While not the greatest win percentages – 52 percent isn’t even actionable in my opinion – it still lets it be known how much a fallacy blindly betting teams playing with double revenge is. There are exceptions to the rule however. Just ask the Villanova Wildcats how that played out last season when it handled the Georgetown Hoyas in both regular season meetings, but went on to lose in the Big East tourney as 6-point favorites. There was a major stipulation however; Collin Gillespie wasn’t available for that third meeting. Regardless, blindly betting on teams with double revenge isn’t as sound as many make it out to be.
Momentum
Target teams that enter the tournament season on a roll as opposed to teams that limped into the postseason. While that train of thought gets dicey when a league winner that wrapped the title up weeks ago runs up against a streaker early on, it’s still an “MO” I’ve utilized with success betting on conference tournaments the last 25+ years. Simply put, look to back teams with fire in their eyes that appear hungry as opposed to teams more or less going through the motions just looking to advance. More times than not, the higher seed is overlooking the current opponent for bigger game down the road. They can get caught with their pants down. This betting scenario becomes even juicier if the lower seed needs to win the conference tournament in order to punch its ticket to the Dance. Dating back 30+ seasons, low seeds that must to win to get in have cashed at better than a 62 percent clip when matched up against an opponent that played to a .400 or better winning percentage in conference play.
Patience
Just because there’s day games to bet doesn’t mean you need to bet the entire board. Just because there’s late afternoon games on a Tuesday doesn’t mean you need to bet the entire board. Just because games are tipping off with the wife and kids soundly asleep, it doesn’t mean you need to bet the entire board. In other words, don’t bet the entire board people! First and foremost you should be hunting for value and attractive betting scenarios that normally return a profit. The last thing you want to occur this time of year is a half-point loss putting you on tilt that forces you to put your entire bankroll in play without even blinking. Your equity is the only thing you have to hold on in this war with the books. Protect it at all costs! Most importantly, don’t wager with what you can’t afford to piss away. If you’re serious about actually making money over the next month, print this final blurb out and attach it to whatever device you’re watching the games on. March Madness is supposed to be fun. Hopefully it’s also rewarding. Don’t tarnish it and turn it into a nightmare by betting well over your head – Good Luck!
