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Another amazing college football season is about to come to a conclusion. On Monday, January 8, at NRG Stadium in Houston, the top-ranked Michigan Wolverines (14-0) and the second-ranked Washington Huskies (14-0) will square off in the College Football Playoff National Championship game. Two unbeaten teams are playing in the championship game for the first time in the CFP era, and both have fascinating stories to tell.
In addition to the aftermath from the sign-stealing incident, Michigan also had to cope with the disappointment of its two previous College Football Playoff appearances. With the help of their most talented team in years, including standout running back Blake Corum, the Wolverines made it to the title game. Meanwhile, Washington, which now boasts college football’s longest winning streak, was doubted every step along the way. But the Huskies have defeated every obstacle in their way thanks in part to Michael Penix Jr.’s arm. The greatest challenge, though, will come from Michigan’s defense, which is regarded as the best in the nation.
Michigan is listed as a 4.5-point favorite at Caesars with a total of 55.5
Washington vs. Michigan
Many questioned Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines despite the team going into another perfect season and winning the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff committee. Few people outside of Ann Arbor really believed in this team’s success, whether it was because of the cheating accusations, the notion that they hadn’t defeated anyone particularly well this season, or their previous CFP setbacks.
However, following victories at Happy Valley, against Ohio State and the Rose Bowl, where they defeated Alabama 27–20 in overtime as 2-point favorites, nobody is still of that opinion. From head to toe, this Wolverines squad may be the most complete in the nation, and they have every right to be in this position. Blake Corum, the running back, leads Michigan, which is ranked 44th in yards per play and ninth in offensive success rate. This season, the senior has rushed for 1,028 yards and 24 touchdowns. In the Wolverines’ Rose Bowl victory over the Crimson Tide, he added an additional 83 yards, which included a game-winning touchdown run of 17 yards.
Nevertheless, when quarterback J.J. McCarthy is productive, the Wolverines perform at their peak level. McCarthy had a great start to the season but faltered towards the end. But without him producing some clutch plays in the closing minutes of the game against Alabama, the Wolverines lose.
However, the Michigan defense garnered the majority of media attention during the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines are fourth in opponent yards per play and ninth in defensive success rate. Against Alabama, their front seven was unstoppable, sacking quarterback Jalen Milroe six times and making the game-winning stop on a fourth-down Milroe keeper inside the five-yard line.
The Washington Huskies are on the opposing side. In his second season in Seattle, Kalen DeBoer has accomplished amazing things. They also completed their schedule unbeaten, and with a 21-game winning streak, they currently hold the longest-unbeaten streak in the FBS.
The Huskies were not regarded as highly as some of the other elite teams, despite winning games—including a crucial one against the formidable Oregon Ducks team in the middle of the season. Ultimately, they had to the Pac-12 title game over Oregon in order to secure their berth. And they made the most of it, defeating Texas in the Sugar Bowl as 3.5-point underdogs, 37-31.
The Huskies, whose explosive offense is led by Michael Penix Jr., the Heisman Trophy runner-up, haven’t let being overlooked get to them. This season, the senior signal-caller put up some eye-popping stats: 4,218 yards of passing with 33 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk are a dynamic duo of wide receivers to whom he can pass. The Huskies lead the nation in passing offense and are ranked fifth overall in terms of offensive success rate and yards per play.
Although Washington’s defense was supposed to be its weak point, it consistently performed well when it mattered most. Defensive end Bralen Trice, who has a promising future, leads the team. Even though some of the statistics are not that great, the defense ranked 29th in opponent QB rating and 25th in opponent yards per attempt. Of course, stopping Corum will be crucial, but the Huskies won all three of their big games despite strong rushing efforts from Texas and Oregon (twice). Furthermore, Washington faced four teams in the Top 26 in defensive success rate this season—those games plus a rematch with Utah. In six contests, Penix passed for 1,383 yards, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions.
The Huskies O-line is perhaps the finest in the county, so it might be more difficult for the Wolverines to apply pressure. In fact, it surrendered just 11 sacks during the season and took home the Joe Moore Award for finest unit. This involved holding Texas’ defensive line, which features several future NFL players, without conceding a single sack.
Check out the latest CFP Championship Odds at Caesars.
Washington vs. Michigan Prop Picks
Even though I am not playing them, I have to mention a couple of interesting props first. Caesars has the Harbaugh Bowls prop with Michigan -4.5 and the Ravens winning the Super Bowl. You can get just over 7-1 on that prop. You can also get 15-1 if you take Washington on the money line and parlay it with Scottie Scheffler winning the Sentry this weekend.
There will be multiple props available at Caesars on Monday, but as of now, there are just a few. Washington plays close games nearly every time, so I will take Washington to win by 1-6 points at +500 and also take Michigan to win by 1-6 points at +430. If either team wins by a small margin we’ll do well.
Caesars also has an Odd/Even prop on the total points with the Odd at -140 and the Even at +118. In today’s college football with two-point tries and plenty of field goals, I think it is a coin flip as to whether the final number lands odd or even and we get +118 on the even.
