College Football Week 9 Opening Line Report
October 27, 2021
NFL Week 8 Opening Line Report
October 27, 2021
By Phil Simon
It’s been a chaotic college football season so far, but the Georgia Bulldogs have stood out as the best team in the land through the first half of the season. And for that reason the Dawgs are at the top of the odds board to win the National Championship. Defending champion Alabama is second on the odds list right behind its SEC rival. The teams won’t meet during the regular season but are destined to collide in the SEC Championship. Should both teams win out ahead of that game the Crimson Tide will earn another CFP invite with a victory and both clubs will likely be playoff participants.
There are still a number of issues to be decided ahead of the playoff and a number of programs remain on the board. Last year’s runner-up Ohio State has the third shortest odds of claiming a national title at +750 with a drop after the top three. Oklahoma headlines the second tier of favorites at +1400 with Cincinnati the fifth favorite. No team from outside a Power Five conference has ever earned a CFP berth and the committee will do everything it can to make sure that doesn’t happen. But the Bearcats have done all they possibly can and need to post impressive wins in their final AAC games to have a chance.
Odds To Win 2022 College Football National Championship
| Georgia | +110 |
| Alabama | +220 |
| Ohio State | +750 |
| Oklahoma | +1400 |
| Cincinnati | +1600 |
| Michigan | +2500 |
| Oklahoma State | +4000 |
| Oregon | +6000 |
| Iowa | +6000 |
| Ole Miss | +6600 |
| Pittsburgh | +6600 |
| Michigan State | +6600 |
| Texas AM | +7500 |
| Clemson | +8000 |
| Penn State | +8000 |
| Notre Dame | +8500 |
| Utah | +10000 |
| Baylor | +10000 |
| Wake Forest | +10000 |
| Iowa State | +12500 |
| NC State | +15000 |
| Arizona State | +20000 |
| UCLA | +20000 |
| Coastal Carolina | +20000 |
| Auburn | +30000 |
| SMU | +30000 |
We’ve never had a 2-loss team or a program from outside the Power Five make the CFP. While Clemson is on the board at +8000, the Tigers already have two losses putting their streak of six straight CFP appearances in jeopardy. Alabama is the only other school to appear in that many playoffs and has a record three national championships since the CFP was introduced following the 2014 season.
And the Crimson Tide are once again among the best teams in the country. They lost recently snapping a 19-game winning streak, but even the best have lapses every now and then. Despite the setback to Texas AM, the Tide are the second favorite on the odds board at +220.
The de facto national championship could actually take place in the SEC title game with Georgia and Alabama on a collision course for Atlanta in early December. There is a scenario where both teams reach the CFP and play for the title, much like they did in 2018 when the Crimson Tide won the championship in overtime.
While the SEC is widely considered the toughest conference, the Big Ten might be the best this season. Unfortunately, with three traditional powers in the same division the reach of the conference is limited. The Big Ten has never had more than one team in the CFP and with Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State battling each other in the East only one of those teams is likely to emerge, but which one? Iowa rose in the ranks but a tough loss to Purdue only magnified their flaws. Ohio State is the third favorite at +750 and with a loss already this season the Buckeyes can’t afford another. And they still have games with Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State on the slate.
Oklahoma is creeping up the odds board and currently sits as the fourth favorite at +1200. There were some tough games early on but the Sooners came out ahead each time. An epic comeback win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry sparked by a quarterback change may have put OU on the championship path. The Sooners had no trouble with a decent TCU squad behind Caleb Williams, who threw for 295 yards and four scores with an additional 66 yards and a touchdown on the ground in his first start. Now is the time to jump on the Sooners with their odds likely to shrink in the coming weeks.
Parity has prevented the Pac-12 from being represented in the CFP. The league hasn’t had a playoff participant in the last four seasons and Oregon saw its odds drop to +6000 following a loss to a mediocre Stanford club and a narrow victory over a bad Cal squad. Still, the Ducks have that W over Ohio State in their back pocket and if they can regain their swagger I’m sure they can make some noise. And at this point they are the conference’s only hope.
