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The Cleveland Browns are a team with moderate expectations when taking into account both the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens possess higher win total odds heading into the regular season. After a 7-10 record and last-place finish in the AFC North a season ago, the Browns will look to bounce back and make a strong playoff push under fourth-year head coach Kevin Stefanski. With the NFL win total set at 9.5 per the oddsmakers over at PointsBet Sportsbook, there is much anticipation surrounding the Browns’ upcoming performance after being forced to deal with a litany of injuries and a major suspension throughout last year’s disappointing campaign. Will a non-rusty Deshaun Watson make all the difference in the world, or will it be the numerous improvements made on the defensive side of the ball that awakens the Dawg Pound from a deep sleep and allows the Browns to snap a two-year win total streak to the under?
Cleveland Browns: The AFC North’s Unknown Entity
Before diving into what transpires over the course of the regular season, let’s take a quick look back at the Cleveland Browns’ performance throughout the 2022-23 NFL betting season. The Browns finished with a 7-10 record and struggled with injuries throughout the year. Despite the setbacks, they managed to compile a respectable 9-8 record against the spread (ATS). Due to the defense taking an enormous step back, Cleveland proved to be the only team in the AFC North to not hook under bettors up with the O/U playing to an 8-8-1 record. Offensively, the Browns put up an average of 349.1 yards per game (No. 14) with Nick Chubb spearheading the No. 6 ranked ground attack while getting very little from the passing game (No. 22). Defensively, the Browns were above average in allowing 331.2 yards per game (No. 14), but had major issues stopping the run (No. 25) and rated out with some of the league’s worst at forcing turnovers (No. 20).
Bet the Cleveland Browns Season Wins Total at PointsBet Sportsbook
Cleveland Browns Season Wins Total: 9.5
One of the most popular NFL betting options is the season win total, which allows bettors to predict the number of victories a team will achieve throughout the regular season. The Cleveland Browns win total is currently set at 9.5 with PointsBet currently attaching -140 juice to the low side of the impost. Dating back to 2008, the Browns have cashed under tickets all but three times but it should be mentioned that one of those over cashes occurred with Stefanski overlooking the team’s day-to-day back in 2020.
The Case for the Over
There are several reasons to be optimistic about the Cleveland Browns surpassing their 9.5-game win total this season. A full year of Deshaun Watson under center is a major factor that could significantly impact the team’s success. Despite a challenging six starts, Watson has the potential to return to his MVP form and lead the Browns’ offense to new heights right out of the chute now that he’s had a full offseason to develop chemistry with his receivers and bust off the rust.
His weapons also give reason for optimism. Amari Cooper logged the second-most receiving yards (1,160) and most touchdowns (9) of his career (1,160) in his inaugural run with the Browns. Donovan Peoples-Jones proved to be a viable deep threat, while David Njoku showed out before getting injured; again. Add to the mix Elijah Moore as well as rookie Cedric Tillman, and Cleveland looks to have the pieces to blow the limited expectations of this unit right out of the water!
A bridesmaid the last two seasons, Chubb will be in a position to become the rushing yards leader provided his offensive line remains one of the best the game has to offer. He’s currently the running favorite to lead the league in rushing yards at PointsBet (+450).
On the defensive side of the ball, the Browns have made improvements by bringing in defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz whose experience and expertise could help the defense reach its full potential. With holdovers Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Grant Delpit and Greg Newsome II paired with newcomers Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Juan Thornhill, the Browns have the talent to make a significant impact and dramatically improve their overall defensive performance.
The Case for the Under
While there are reasons to be optimistic about the Browns exceeding their win total, there are also factors that could lead to them falling short. The success of the team is heavily dependent on Deshaun Watson’s performance leading the offense. If Watson struggles to regain his form or faces challenges in developing chemistry with his receivers, it could hinder the Browns’ offensive production; much like last season.
The Browns also face stiff competition within the AFC North and will run up against a middle of the road schedule strength per the stat heads over at Sharp Football Analysis. The division features strong teams in the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Competing against these formidable opponents could make it difficult for the Browns to secure enough wins to surpass their win total with the AFC North title race expected to be a gauntlet. They split against all three rivals last season (4-2 ATS). Additionally, the defense will need to rediscover how to shut down opposing rushing attacks after ranking No. 31 in the league in EPA.
If unable to make significant improvements in key areas, it will be darn near close to impossible to compete in a division that has two teams lined amongst the favorites to win Super Bowl LVIII.
Cleveland Browns Schedule
Week 1: vs. Bengals
Week 2: at Steelers (MNF)
Week 3: vs. Titans
Week 4: vs. Ravens
Week 5: Bye Week
Week 6: vs. 49ers
Week 7: at Colts
Week 8: at Seahawks
Week 9: vs. Cardinals
Week 10: at Ravens
Week 11: vs. Steelers
Week 12: at Broncos
Week 13: at Rams
Week 14: vs. Jaguars
Week 15: vs. Bears
Week 16: at Texans
Week 17: vs. Jets (TNF)
Week 18: at Bengals
Cleveland Browns Season Win Total Analysis
Considering the Browns’ potential for improvement on both sides of the ball, their talented roster, and the return of a motivated Deshaun Watson, my prediction leans towards the over of their 2023-24 season win total. While there are challenges and competition within the division, I believe Cleveland has the pieces in place to exceed their win total and make a strong playoff push in the 2023 season. This team is flying under the radar in a big way, and NFL bettors will get an immediate chance to see if their legit with all three division rivals lined up in the first month of play. If nothing else, at least the franchise has a snazzy new logo!
Cleveland Browns Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9.5 +115
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