CFB Betting – Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

By Phil Simon

For those who invested in Spencer Rattler as the Heisman Trophy winner at the start of the season, you might as well tear up that ticket. The emergence of Caleb Williams has the Oklahoma Sooners positioned as a 5.5-point road favorite for their Big 12 showdown with the Baylor Bears. OU is one of four undefeated FBS programs after knocking off Texas Tech two weeks ago to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 17 games. The only thing that might slow them down is a bye. I guess we’ll have to wait and see about that. At 7-2 SU the Bears aren’t an easy out, especially at home where they’re 5-0 SU and ATS.

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

Date and Time: Saturday, November 13, 2021, 12 p.m. ET
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
CFB Odds: Oklahoma -5.5, O/U 62
Oklahoma at Baylor TV Coverage: FOX

Odds Analysis

Oklahoma opened laying 6.5-points with the spread quickly bet down to OU -5.5. The Sooners have been favored in every game this season with the closing line under 10-points just once previously. That came a few weeks ago in a dramatic 55-48 win over Texas when they scored on the game’s final play to cover the 4-point line. That was also the coming out party for Williams, who replaced Rattler in the first half with his team trailing 28-7. Prior to that game the Sooners were 1-4 ATS. With Williams behind center they are 3-1 ATS. I thought it was interesting that the line was wagered in favor of Baylor, but the Bears are a good team who had a major hiccup last week. They lost outright at TCU 30-28 as a 7.5-point favorite ending their three-game SU and ATS winning streak. BU has also lost seven straight to Oklahoma with covers in the last three.

Oklahoma Sooners

It doesn’t seem to matter who’s quarterbacking the Sooners all they do is win. I don’t think the switch to Williams was meant to be permanent. The team needed a spark after falling behind Texas by three touchdowns and Rattler wasn’t playing well. Outside of their 76-0 romp over FCS Western Carolina their games were close with the other four against FBS competition decided by seven points or less.

Williams helped make it that way by playing splendidly when on the field. He ignited the comeback against Texas and has completed better than 79 percent of his passes for 875 and 12 touchdowns in his three starts. This will be his stiffest yet against a defense that ranks 27th in the country in points allowed. However, the Bears are susceptible to the pass and Williams isn’t afraid to air it out. He had 402 passing yards with six touchdowns against Texas Tech.

Giving value to the OVER is the play of Oklahoma’s defense. The lack of a consistent pass rush has been a problem. OU allows 273 yards per game through the air to rank 115th in the FBS and they are sixth in the Big 12 giving up nearly 25 points per game. They will have to slow down Baylor’s ground game, but that’s actually been a strength.

Baylor Bears

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears were looking ahead to this showdown. After all had things gone according to plan this would’ve been a showdown for first place in the Big 12. Well, things didn’t go Baylor’s way and the upset loss to TCU cost them a chance at a conference title. It also upset Baylor’s chances of getting back to the conference title game since their other loss was to Oklahoma State, who sits right above them in the league standings.

Baylor is a well-rounded squad with no room for error. They were gouged last week by a QB making his first start. If Chandler Morris is as good as he was last Saturday he’d be starting at Oklahoma. Baylor yielded 562 total yards to the Frogs with Morris throwing for 461 yards and adding 70 more on the ground. Maybe it was an off day for a group that’s usually pretty good, or maybe Morris found something to exploit. You know OU studied the film and the Bears will be hard pressed to slow down Williams.

With Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner each having more than 600 yards rushing, the Bears own the nation’s ninth-best ground game. That’s taken a lot of pressure off Gerry Bohanon to produce through the air. Struggling to get yards running the ball last week, Bohanon took to the air with little success. He had just 214 yards passing and was intercepted twice. All five of his picks were thrown in the last three games after he went the first six games without one.

Bet Oklahoma at Baylor

Don’t be turned off by one bad game. It was the perfect storm for Baylor last week, playing an emotional team whose longtime coach was let go and not performing to your strengths resulted in the upset loss. The Bears will be pumped to put that game behind them and knock off the conference leader. A win also keeps their hopes for a championship game appearance alive. I do think OU has the talent and Williams is fearless. He won’t be unnerved by the atmosphere after succeeding in the biggest rivalry game the Sooners have.

CFB Score Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Baylor 31