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By Phil Simon
The Michigan State Spartans did this week’s opponent a huge favor with an upset win over Michigan a few weeks ago. The Ohio State Buckeyes are now prepared to return the favor. OSU can move closer to another Big Ten East title by taking down Sparty on Saturday in a mammoth game toward determining the division champ. Few expected the Spartans to be in position to claim the division and fewer expect them to beat the big, bad Buckeyes, who opened as a 17.5-point favorite in college football lines for this clash.
Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes
Date and Time: Saturday, November 20, 2021, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
NCAAF Odds: Ohio State -19, O/U 68
Michigan State at Ohio State TV Coverage: ABC
College Football Odds
Michigan State has been a huge surprise to those who bet on college football. The Spartans were picked to finish near the bottom of the division standings before the season and here they are with hopes of a title still dangling in their heads. They have the same 9-1 record as OSU but oddsmakers aren’t giving them much love. The Buckeyes hit the board as a 17.5-point favorite with that number wagered up to OSU -19. Sparty kept its hopes alive by rebounding with a 40-21 cover win over Maryland last week. They’ve been a profitable play in college football games going 7-1-2 ATS. Ohio State has been unbeatable in Big Ten games winning 28 straight, and the Buckeyes have won the last five in the series with payouts in each of the last four. Oddsmakers anticipate a lot of points with the total of 68 the highest in the series.
Michigan State Spartans
With nothing to lose you can expect the Spartans to try just about everything and anything. Well, that’s not exactly true; they can lose the game and a chance at the East title. But they weren’t even supposed to be in this position and not many are giving them a chance to win this game, which makes MSU a dangerous opponent.
The Spartans have an exciting offense led by Payton Thorne and Kenneth Walker. They average nearly 451 total yards and 199 rushing yards while scoring 34.6 points per game to rank 26th nationally. Thorne has thrown for 2,460 yards on the season and had a big game last week completing 22 of 30 for 287 yards and four touchdowns. One OSU weakness is its pass defense and you can expect Thorne and leading receiver Jayden Reed to be eye-balling each other. The pass game isn’t more productive because the nation’s leading rusher resides in the backfield. Walker amassed 143 yards last week upping his season total to 1,483.
MSU will have to do something it hasn’t done much of in the last six meetings. The Spartans were unable to score more than 17 in any of those games and averaged just 10.7 points in that span. Going against the highest scoring team in the country, Thorne and Co. will probably have to exceed their scoring average just to be close. That’s because the defense gives up 444 yards and nearly 330 yards per game through the air.
Ohio State Buckeyes
They survived close calls against Penn State and Nebraska scoring a total of 59 points while failing to cover the college football betting line both times. But we saw the Buckeyes bust out last week against Purdue, the team that handed MSU its only loss, scoring more than 50 points for the fifth time in the 59-31 win. Though they put up two of their three lowest point totals against Nebraska and PSU, the Buckeyes still boast the nation’s best offense averaging over 550 yards and 46.3 points. And they’ve been good in recent matchups outscoring Sparty 160-31 over the past four encounters.
C.J. Stroud has amassed over 3,000 passing yards this season and he’s salivating about the chance to face a defense that ranks 130th in the FBS against the pass. Purdue’s Aiden O’Connell shredded MSU for 536 yards on 40 of 54 passing so it makes me wonder what Stroud and his cadre of pass catching weapons can do. Defending the pass has been a sore spot for OSU, but the offense has been able to overcome the difficulties.
College Football Best Bets
There’s a reason why the total is the highest in a game between these teams in at least the last 20 years. Both offenses are strong with great run-pass balance and a bevy of playmakers. And we’ve seen the teams struggle at times defending the pass so the total is pushing 70. The over has cashed just once in the previous six meetings and it took a 52-point outburst from OSU to get there. But this is a different MSU team and I expect points to be scored. And the more points scored gives OSU an advantage.
CFB Score Prediction: Ohio State 48, Michigan State 25
