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The rivalry between the Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers hasn’t seen a double-digit spread since the 2017 season. That however could be the case on Saturday when the hated SEC rivals lock horns in Thompson-Boling where the fifth ranked Vols will be heavily favored to win a sixth straight game while at the same time remain unblemished in conference play. Things are starting to get a bit uneasy in Lexington with the Big Blue Nation growing tired of their team’s collective effort every passing game. Talking heads have gone as far as stating John Calipari’s lost the team. “He doesn’t know how to cohesively use the talent on the roster.” “They don’t want to fight for him!” These are just some of the snippets I found when casually perusing the interwebs.
I’m not buying it! It’s early January with plenty of season to go. What I do know is an A+ effort must be churned out in this spot so as to calm the nerves of the restless natives. If linemakers hang double-digits on the board, I’ll have no choice but to take each and every one of those points. This is Kentucky basketball we’re talking about here for crying out loud!
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Date and Time: Saturday, January 14, 2023 at 12 PM EST
Location: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville, Tennessee
TV Coverage: ESPN
Betting Info
PointsBet Sportsbook finds itself in a bit of a conundrum leading up to this matchup. Will they add more fuel to the fire and install the Volunteers 10+ point favorites, or will it error on the side of caution knowing every Tom, Dick, and Harry will be lining up to take those points? For reference sake, the Torvik Ratings has Tennessee laying an insane 18.5-points while the Pomeroy Ratings have the Volunteers around 15 points better. Either way, it’s crazy to think a team as talented as Kentucky would be catching double-digits against anyone let alone a conference rival it’s extremely familiar with. Either way, the Wildcats have been enormous money burners in logging a 4-11-1 record against the spread while Tennessee stands a modest 9-7 ATS.
These rivals have played to low scorers in two straight as well as three of the last four with an average of 145.3 points scored. Kentucky has cashed over tickets at a 9-7 clip while Tennessee has seen the under cash in nine of its 16 played games. The Vols stand 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it hosted this rivalry with the teams combining for low scorers in seven of those matchups.
Kentucky Wildcats
When putting KY Jelly’s overall body of work under a microscope, it truthfully doesn’t look that bad. In fact, it actually paints the picture of an NCAA tournament caliber team that should at the very least make it through the first weekend. KenPom has the offense ranked No. 21 in efficiency with Oscar Tshiebwe’s 16.0 point per game average one of four double-digit tallies on the roster. His 13.1 rebounds per game finds Kentucky ranked amongst the best in the country at rebounding the basketball; especially at the offensive end of the court (No. 3). What is perplexing however is the team’s No. 284 tempo rating. For the life of me I can’t ever remember watching a Kentucky team that played it slow and methodical. Maybe it’s time to hit the afterburners fellas!
Tennessee Volunteers
Per usual, Tennessee has gotten out to another solid start by way of playing lockdown defense (No. 2), rebounding the dickens out of the basketball, and forcing their opponent’s into a mind-numbing amount of turnovers (No. 7). Santiago Vescovi and Olivier Nkamhoua have been near mirror images of one another from a production standpoint with each averaging 11+ points, 4+ rebounds, and 2+ assists per game. They represent two of four double-digit scorers on the roster with three shooting at least 33.0 percent from long range and each converting at a 70+ percent clip from the charity stripe. That production paired with the menacing defensive style exhibited makes the 14-2 overall record look even more legit than it already does.
The Wager
I’d feel a whole lot better about taking the Wildcats plus the points knowing Jacob Toppin and his much needed 6.1 rebounds per game would be made available after missing the horrific 71-68 loss to South Carolina due to a shoulder injury. He’s currently listed as questionable. With the senior in the lineup, Kentucky would be more readily able to bang the glass with the Vols. Without him, Tshiebwe would have his hands full. I wouldn’t put it past him going HAM however with Purdue’s Zach Edey now the decided favorite to take the Wooden Award away from him.
No team has defended the perimeter better than Tennessee to this point of the season. However, it’s yet to run up against an excelled 3-point shooting team like the Wildcats (No. 39). If Tennessee is laying anywhere close to double-digits and Kentucky is competing on the glass and knocking shots down from long range, the Vols will have no shot at covering that number. Just make sure Toppin’s in the lineup before throwing any money down!
Bet Kentucky/Tennessee at PointsBet Sportsbook
