Written by Mike Rose

With the top seed in the upcoming SEC tournament likely to be occupied by the Auburn Tigers who got South Carolina at home on Saturday, the Arkansas Razorbacks, Kentucky Wildcats, and Tennessee Volunteers only have the two, three, and four seeds to compete for.

 As it stands right now, the Hogs are nestled in at No. 2, the Wildcats No. 3, and Vols No. 4. That however could change dramatically dependent upon how Saturday afternoon’s showdown in Knoxville plays out between the No. 14 Razorbacks and No. 13 Volunteers. Arkansas currently owns the tiebreaker over Tennessee after logging the 58-48 win and cover as short 2-point home favorites back on February 19. The game played to a screeching halt even though there was a total of 68 possessions between both teams. Neither could hit the ocean from a boat in that one, and the defensive intensity from the first meeting is likely to carry over to the second. DraftKings Sportsbook will have all point spreads, totals, moneylines, and prop bets for this crucial SEC tilt set to go early Saturday afternoon.

Betting Odds Analysis

The Hogs invade Rocky Top on a roll having come out on top in each of their last five games. However, the regression monster has paid Eric Musselman and company a visit with the team failing to cover each of its last two triumphs against Kentucky and LSU; the former was however an extremely bad beat for those that laid the points. Regardless, Arkansas stands 24-6 SU overall and 18-11-1 versus the closing college basketball betting odds. KenPom currently has the team ranked No. 19 in the country. By way of rattling off wins in eight of their last nine games, Tennessee has thrust itself back into earning a share of the SEC regular season title. Since falling by 10 points in Fayetteville, the Vols have defeated Mizzou, Auburn and Georgia but failed to cover last time out against the Dawgs as hefty 15.5-point road favorites. Tennessee returns home for the regular season finale where it stands an unblemished 15-0 SU and 9-6 ATS.

Arkansas Razorbacks

If not for dropping a tough 1-point decision at Alabama back on February 12, the Hogs would invade Knoxville amidst a 15-game win streak. But it did and the win streak only clocks in at five. Regardless, J.D. Notae and company are on a roll and it shows in their futures odds to win both the SEC tournament and NCAA tournament with their odds of doing so getting shorter every passing game. That being said, the team was incredibly lucky to come out of Wednesday night’s home clash with a dub. Notae couldn’t get on track, and the Hogs rebounders simply had no clue how to keep the Tigers off the offensive glass. LSU pulled in 16 offensive caroms! It’ll get ugly real quick if that effort is mimicked in round two versus the Volunteers.

Tennessee Volunteers

Coming off that huge home win and cover versus Auburn, it hardly came as a shock to see Tennessee struggle at Georgia on Tuesday night. The teams played to a 35-35 draw through the first 20 minutes of play with Vols turnovers allowing the Dawgs to keep it close. Things settled down over the final 20 which allowed for Santiago Vescovi and his mates to grind out the 75-68 win and non-cover as decided double-digit road chalk. If not for Josiah Jordan-James going off for a season-high 23 points with 14 coming in the second half, it likely would’ve lost the game outright! The catalyst to Tennessee’s dramatic turnaround has been the play of its defense which hasn’t allowed an opponent to amass 70 or more points over the last eight games.

The Wager

I personally laid the possession with the Hogs in the first meeting between these SEC teams, and wasn’t comfortable in doing so until late in the second half. Arkansas trailed 41-40 with just over eight minutes remaining until a Davonte Davis 3-ball helped propel it to an 11-3 spurt that allowed for never looking back. The game was nothing if not a rock fight! Tennessee shot 27 percent from the field and only converted 4 of 24 shots from long range. Arkansas wasn’t much better in converting at a 31 percent clip while only knocking down five of 22 attempted 3-balls. The battle of the boards almost played even (42-41), but Vols turnovers (14) and lack of execution from the stripe (67%) ultimately cost them. Arkansas has been living on the edge recently, but still managed to come out on top. I think it catches up to them today. Tennessee will be locked in for Senior Day and determined to remain unblemished in front of the hometown faithful.