AAC Tournament Odds & Picks

While there are a number of conference tournaments out there that look to be wide open, that simply just isn’t the case with the American Athletic. This looks to be a two-horse race with the top seeded Houston Cougars and No. 3 seed Memphis Tigers likely destined for a third go-round in the finals. Kelvin Sampson’s squad won their first ever American tourney title last season after losing in the finals the previous two seasons, and DraftKings Sportsbook currently has them lined the decided favorites to secure the repeat. Though two of its three AAC losses came against Penny Hardaway’s Tigers, the folks at TeamRankings.com still give them a better than 63 percent chance to hoist the hardware for the second straight season. While SMU could prove to have a say in how it all plays out, its path to the finals won’t be easy. You can “Sharpie” the Coogs into the finals right now, but will they finally be able to solve the riddle that’s been their kryptonite? Only time will tell. Regardless, here are my favorite, underdog and longshot selections that have already been invested in heading into Thursday’s first round action from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, TX.

AAC Tournament Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Houston -150

Memphis +300

SMU +700

Tulane +2000

UCF/Wichita State/Cincinnati +2500

Temple +4000

East Carolina/Tulsa +10000

South Florida +25000

Favorite to Bet: Houston Cougars -150

From an analytics viewpoint, Houston rates out as the very best team in the conference as well as one of the best in the country. The Pomeroy Ratings currently has them installed the No. 5 team in the country, while T-Rank clocks them in at No. 2! But before you get too excited and hammer them to win the NCAA tournament after making it to the Final Four last season, just know that the Cougars are yet to defeat a team projected to qualify for the Big Dance. That’s not good! Even so, the roster is brimming with talent and the team can only play the opponent’s laid before them. The offense does most of its dirty work close to the rack where Kyler Edwards (13.6 PPG/3.0 APG) routinely feeds bigs Fabian White Jr. (13.2 PPG/5.9 RPG) and Josh Carlton (11.8 PPG/6.6 RPG) for easy buckets. In all, the attack ranks No. 14 in efficiency and No. 46 in field goal percentage. Defensively, the Coogs concede less than 59 points per game (No. 7) and have held all opposition to the lowest shooting percentage in the country (37.2%). On top of that, it gives up next to nothing in the paint (No. 7) and forces a plethora of turnovers (No. 23) which allows the offense to get out and run to force the issue. Free throw shooting (No. 334) and committing fouls (No. 280) are concerning, but this team will sleep walk its way to the finals with its side of the bracket comprised of a bunch of creampuffs.

Underdog to Bet: Memphis Tigers +300

The Tigers kicked off the season with five straight wins to go along with a trio of covers against the college basketball odds. Then it dropped an ugly 78-59 decision to Iowa State in the NIT Season Tip-Off at the Barclays Center which kick started a four-game losing streak. CBB bettors started to lose faith. Though Memphis would bounce back with wins in four of its next five games (2-2-1 ATS), it would go on to drop three straight against @UCF, @ECU, and SMU. But once Deandre Williams returned from injury, Memphis shot itself out of a cannon rattling off wins in 10 of its final 11 games to better situate itself for an at-large invite into the Field of 64. Currently ranked No. 28 at KenPom.com and playing with all sorts of confidence after sweeping the rivalry by hammering Houston in the season finale, the Tigers are going to be a tough out for all that get in their way to the finals. The offense flusters opposing defenses by coming at them from all directions be it close to the rack (No. 71) or from behind the arc (No. 55). It’s also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country (No. 6). While turnovers (No. 352) and cleaning the defensive glass (No. 315) are problem areas, it makes up for it by forcing miscues itself (No. 34) and taking care of business from the free throw line (No. 14). While the bracket looks to be much tougher than Houston’s on paper, Memphis is still the best team in it by a comfy margin.

Longshot to Bet: Central Florida Knights +2500

Before breaking down my longshot, I wanted to put out this disclaimer first: the nine other teams on the AAC futures odds are nothing more than cannon fodder for both Houston and Memphis. While I might be looking at this bracket with tunnel vision, the proof is in the pudding. I initially wanted to take a stab with Jalen Cook and the Tulane Green Wave before seeing the bracket, but their draw is brutal. Temple nearly swept the season rivalry, and Houston laid 18 and 10 points in both meetings; not gonna happen. Instead, I’ll take a dart throw with UCF who could be lying in the weeks after limping to the finish line. Nothing about the Knights jumps off the page statistically, but I’m a huge fan of Brandon Mahan whose shown an ability to take over a game and lead the team to victory on a number of occasions. With wins in tow against Miami, Michigan, Memphis, Wichita State, and Cincinnati, anything could happen should Johnny Dawkins’ kids go on a heater and turn this tourney on its head. I’ll take a flier just in case it comes to fruition. If nothing else, a deep run would create a nice hedge position should it win three games in three days to reach the finals.