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If everything is a bad beat, then nothing is a bad beat. It cheapens the term when you’re in a 50/50 situation, it doesn’t go your way, and you whine about the unfathomably awful loss you took.
The NFL’s Week 15 Monday Night Football game offered a perfect example of misapplications of the “bad beat” designation. Media outlets even ran articles about the ending of that Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Rams. But this wasn’t a horrible bad beat. This was a close loss that could’ve been a close win. Not should’ve. Merely could’ve.
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With two minutes to play, the Packers were up 24-12 and had a third-and-2 at the Rams’ 4. The points total for the game was set at 39.5. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw a quick pass to rookie receiver Christian Watson, but the two weren’t on the same page, Watson never turned around, and the ball landed harmlessly near his right foot.
The Packers could’ve elected to kick a field goal (to bring the points total to 39) on fourth down but instead handed off to Aaron Jones, who gained a first down. Rodgers kneeled three times to end the game instead of his team trying to score a meaningless touchdown.
Could it have broken differently, rewarding those who bet the points “over”? Absolutely. Watson could have known the play Rodgers had in mind and turned around, made the catch, and possibly scored (there were still two defenders between him and the end zone). We don’t know what percentage of the time this play results in a touchdown. We know it’s not high enough to label this a “bad beat.”
But this is typical of the attitude that permeates the gambling world, where many people have a condition that ascribes every loss to rotten luck and every win to masterful skill.
A bad beat is not just a loss. It’s a loss in memorable fashion, either because something almost unprecedented happened or because the odds of defeat had become remote before it all unraveled. There needs to be at least some fluke involved or a little weirdness.
Something specific to the term “bad beat” makes it grating. We’ve all heard people say they took a “tough beat,” and it came off as harmless — there’s an implication there that the bettor feels slightly wronged and unfortunate, but there’s no outright whining, and they acknowledge that it wasn’t too extreme.
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