World Series Bets
July 18, 2023
Grand Salami Betting
July 18, 2023
There is a perceived gulf between the top three teams in the SEC and everyone else and a chasm between the top five teams and everyone else. It’s pretty safe to go ahead and write off the bottom nine teams in the SEC Championship betting odds as programs that would need a miracle to win the conference championship. The SEC is as tough as ever, and teams like Ole Miss, Auburn, South Carolina, and Florida just don’t have enough firepower to truly compete with their colleagues. With that in mind, let’s just focus on the perceived five best teams in the conference.
SEC Championship Odds at BetRivers
Georgia -114
Alabama +240
LSU +480
Texas A&M +1400
Tennessee +2000
Ole Miss +5500
Auburn +7000
South Carolina +9000
Florida +9500
Kentucky +10000
Arkansas +10000
Mississippi State +10000
Missouri +20000
Vanderbilt +25000
Georgia is trying to make history by becoming the first program to win three straight national championships since Minnesota in the 1930s. The Bulldogs have lost a lot of talent to the NFL over the last couple seasons, but Kirby Smart has been able to recruit exceptionally well and develop those four and five stars. Brock Bowers is probably the best tight end in the country, and that will help new quarterback Carson Beck. There’s a lot of pressure on Beck’s shoulders, but he doesn’t have to lead the offense to many points considering the talent on the defense. The Bulldogs certainly deserve to be the favorites by the SEC betting odds, but there just isn’t much value in backing them at this price.
My pick to win the SEC is Alabama. The Crimson Tide have won the SEC seven times over the last 11 years, and I will jump at the opportunity to back this team at +240 to win the conference championship. New starting quarterback Jalen Milroe showed a lot of potential last season, and this is an elite secondary. The schedule works in Alabama’s favor too despite the difficulty as the Crimson Tide get to host Texas, Tennessee, and LSU.
LSU is an intriguing pick to win the SEC, but it’s not a bet that I would make at under 5-1. Brian Kelly did a great job in his first year in Baton Rouge, and he has something in dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels. However, the Bayou Bengals finished last season 13th in SP+, and they didn’t have a top 20 offense or defense. The Tigers are returning a lot of key players, but they are on the road for their three toughest games. That could lead to LSU taking a step back even though this is the team’s second year under Kelly.
While they have a lot of talent, we are in “believe it, when I see it” territory with Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. The Aggies gave Fisher a ton of guaranteed money in order to turn this program into a national championship contender, but they have only had one great season (2020), and they have lost at least four games under Fisher in four of his five seasons. They have recruited extremely well in the NIL era, but Fisher has not been able to be the quarterback whisperer he was at Florida State with first round picks in Christian Ponder, E.J. Manuel, and No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston. There aren’t a lot of seniors on this team either, and there is a potential for things to escalate from bad to worse quickly if the Aggies suffer an early defeat.
Tennessee might look like a tempting pick to win the SEC at 20-1, but the Volunteers are going to have a hard time topping their best season in almost a quarter century. Joe Milton is not nearly as reliable as Hendon Hooker, and the Vols will have to go on the road to face Alabama this year. Additionally, the team has to play Texas A&M in cross-division play, so the Vols drew the short end of the stick on that front. There will be some real questions about the defense too, making it even more difficult for Josh Heupel during his third season in Knoxville. That makes Tennessee a pass at this price.
