Washington Commanders Season Win Total Odds, Picks & Prediction
July 20, 2023
Wynnbet
July 20, 2023
There were some big changes to the Big 12 this offseason. In anticipation of conference heavyweights Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC next season, the Big 12 added four new teams in UCF, Cincinnati, Houston, and BYU. None of those four teams are expected to contend for the conference championship immediately, and UCF has the lowest odds to win the Big 12 Championship at 45-1. Instead, Texas and Oklahoma are favored to win the conference just as they have been for the last couple decades.
Big 12 Championship Odds at BetRivers
Texas +100
Oklahoma +335
Kansas State +550
Texas Tech +1100
Baylor +1500
TCU +2500
UCF +4500
Kansas +5000
Iowa State +5500
Oklahoma State +6500
Houston +7000
Cincinnati +7000
West Virginia +8000
BYU +10000
Once again, Texas is favored to win the Big 12 even though the Longhorns haven’t won the conference title since 2009. The Longhorns are perennially the most overrated team in the country as we have heard countless iterations of “We’re Back” over the last dozen years. This program has only won more than nine games in a season one time since 2009, and the Longhorns have lost three or more conference games in 11 of the last 13 years.
There’s no denying that Texas is a talented team. The Longhorns continue to recruit at a very high level, but Steve Sarkisian has not been an improvement over late-stage Mack Brown, Charlie Strong, or Tom Herman in his first two seasons on the job. Texas is just 13-12 over the past two seasons. Quinn Ewers has not been the game changer at quarterback that many were expecting, and now the Longhorns don’t have dynamic running back Bijan Robinson. Additionally, there are not a lot of seniors on this roster outside of the back seven, so this wager is a stay away. Not only that, if you can bet the ‘No’ on Texas to not win the Big 12, that is a great price.
It would not be a wise idea to bet on Oklahoma to win the Big 12 at this price. The Sooners are coming off their worst season since 1998 in Brent Venables’ first year at the helm, and they have now rolled the dice by adding a ton of transfers. Dillon Gabriel is a solid quarterback, but the offense just isn’t as dynamic as it was under Lincoln Riley. Additionally, the defense that was supposed to be much better under Venables actually took a step back as the Sooners allowed 30 PPG and ranked 123rd in total defense (461.0 YPG).
Kansas State is an intriguing pick to win the title. The Wildcats beat No. 2 TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game last season, and they bring back starting quarterback Will Howard. The loss of Deuce Vaughn to the NFL can’t be overstated, but they should still have an elite ground game with four fifth-year seniors starting along the offensive line. Treshaun Ward transferred in from Florida State after averaging 6.6 YPC in 2022 for the Seminoles, and he will probably be the most productive running back in the Big 12 if he stays healthy.
Joey McGuire hit the transfer portal hard last offseason. Texas Tech brought in 14 new players to Lubbock, and that helped the Red Raiders have a surprising amount of success in 2022. They went 8-5 and defeated Houston Texas, and Oklahoma. However, all three of those wins came in overtime, so there is likely to be some reversion to the mean, especially since all five of Texas Tech’s losses came by more than one possession. They would be worth a small bet at 18-1 or so, but 11-1 is too low.
That brings us to my best bet to win the Big 12. I really like Baylor to win the Big 12 at 15-1 per the CFB futures odds. The Bears have been incredibly up and down since the Art Briles scandal, but they are two years removed from a 12-2 season and a Sugar Bowl victory. They have a favorable schedule with only four road games, and they get to host Texas and Texas Tech, and they don’t have to play Oklahoma. Blake Shapen should take a big step forward in his second season, so I will roll with Baylor at 15-1.
