NFL Betting Strategies
November 6, 2021
NFL Game Props
November 6, 2021
Hope springs eternal, and the NFL Draft gives all 32 teams a chance to improve prior to the start of the next season. Teams know that finding talent in the draft is key to success, and the most valuable asset in the sport is a great quarterback on a rookie contract.
Types of NFL Draft Bets
The most common NFL Draft bet revolves around the identity of the No. 1 overall pick, but in some years that’s a lot easier to determine than others. For instance, everyone knew that Andrew Luck was going to be the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Michael Vick would be the first player off the board in the 2001 NFL Draft.
Trevor Lawrence is seen as a lock to go No. 1 in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Clemson product has been at least -500 since April 2020 to go first, and he is currently upwards of -5000 to be the first player selected.
Typically, the identity of the No. 1 overall pick is known a week before Draft Day, but there are some years where the decision is unknown until just before the announcement. That happened in 2005 as no one knew whether Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers would be taken by the San Francisco 49ers with the first selection. San Francisco famously opted for Smith over Rodgers, and Rodgers fell all the way to the No. 24 overall pick. Green Bay had the last laugh though as Rodgers was clearly the best player in the draft.
As Draft Day approaches, there are other odds that are released. You will typically find odds for who will be taken for each individual pick in the top five, and then there will be head-to-head matchups between similar players to see who will come off the board first. There can be some real value in these bets if you can identify players that might be set to fall or rise.
Additionally, sportsbooks will offer bets on the number of players taken in the first round from certain elite schools (Alabama, LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, etc.) and there will be over/unders posted for first-round selections from each Power Five conference. Also, you will find over/unders for position groups (particularly quarterbacks).
NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Picks in the 21st Century
|
Year |
Position |
Player |
College |
|
2020 |
QB |
Joe Burrow |
LSU |
|
2019 |
QB |
Kyler Murray |
Oklahoma |
|
2018 |
QB |
Baker Mayfield |
Oklahoma |
|
2017 |
DE |
Myles Garrett |
Texas A&M |
|
2016 |
QB |
Jared Goff |
California |
|
2015 |
QB |
Jameis Winston |
Florida State |
|
2014 |
DE |
Jadeveon Clowney |
South Carolina |
|
2013 |
OT |
Eric Fisher |
Central Michigan |
|
2012 |
QB |
Andrew Luck |
Stanford |
|
2011 |
QB |
Cam Newton |
Auburn |
|
2010 |
QB |
Sam Bradford |
Oklahoma |
|
2009 |
QB |
Matthew Stafford |
Georgia |
|
2008 |
OT |
Jake Long |
Michigan |
|
2007 |
QB |
JaMarcus Russell |
LSU |
|
2006 |
DE |
Mario Williams |
North Carolina State |
|
2005 |
QB |
Alex Smith |
Utah |
|
2004 |
QB |
Eli Manning |
Ole Miss |
|
2003 |
QB |
Carson Palmer |
USC |
|
2002 |
QB |
David Carr |
Fresno State |
|
2001 |
QB |
Michael Vick |
Virginia Tech |
|
2000 |
DE |
Courtney Brown |
Penn State |
Quarterbacks are key in the modern NFL. Thus, it’s no surprise to find quarterbacks being taken No. 1 overall more often than any other position by a huge amount. We have seen 23 running backs go No. 1, but the last RB taken first overall was Penn State’s Ki-Jana Carter back in 1995. That position has fallen out of favor, and we may never see a running back taken first overall again.
Since Peyton Manning was taken first overall in the 1998 NFL Draft, quarterbacks have been taken with the No. 1 pick in 17 of the last 23 drafts. There have been some studs and some duds in that stretch, but the upside of hitting on a quarterback is too much for teams to pass up.
Oklahoma has seen three quarterbacks taken with the No. 1 overall pick since 2010. Sam Bradford didn’t work out, but Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were both Heisman Trophy winners that were named Rookie of the Year by at least one publication.
In the past two decades, the only other positions taken with the No. 1 pick are offensive or defensive linemen. There has been a movement away from taking offensive tackles No. 1 overall, but game-changing defensive ends have risen in priority.
