We were unable to win a parlay last week, and we didn’t even win aside. Rice, Miami (OH), and Kent State all failed to cover large spreads, and the Over in Ohio State/Notre Dame didn’t come close to hitting. The Under in Clemson/Georgia Tech should have hit, but special teams plays and late touchdowns led to a bad beat there. Let’s hope this week turns out better.
Fast-Paced Favorites Parlay
Tennessee -6, UCF -5.5, USC -8
$100 to Win $589.84
Three of the most up-tempo offenses in college football are all favored by about a touchdown this week. Tennessee is a six-point favorite on the road against Pittsburgh, UCF is a 5.5-point favorite at home against Louisville, and USC is an eight-point favorite at Stanford. All three teams have a good chance of covering the spread thanks to their high-powered offenses.
Tennessee blitzed Ball State from the start last week. Hendon Hooker was extremely efficient as the Volunteers took a 38-0 lead into halftime, and this offense has the potential to pick apart a Pittsburgh defense that did not look sharp at times against West Virginia in Week 1. Josh Heupel has a lot of buzz entering Year 2, and the Vols could win 10 or more games.
It took a while for Pitt’s offense to get going against WVU in the Backyard Brawl. The Panthers had just 10 points at halftime, but Kedon Slovis came alive in the second half. Pitt can’t afford another slow start considering what Tennessee’s offense can do with temp, and the Vols should have more success than the Mountaineers did last week.
The UCF Knights had no trouble against FCS South Carolina State in Week 1. New quarterback John Rhys Plumlee threw for over 300 yards and ran for 100 yards in the win, and UCF picked up more than 600 yards of offense. Plumlee is the perfect quarterback to run Gus Malzahn’s offense, as he is an extremely dangerous runner, and he has the potential to pick apart a bad Louisville defense.
The Cardinals rank 71st in Defensive SP+. They allowed 449 total yards to Syracuse last week, as Garrett Shrader carved this defense up with RPOs. Plumlee has the potential to do the same, making the Knights a nice pick here.
We thought that USC might get off to a slow start with so many transfers on the roster, but Lincoln Riley had the Trojans’ offense humming against lowly Rice. USC racked up over 530 yards and benefited from four Rice turnovers in a 66-14 win. Now, Caleb Williams will face a Stanford team that is not as strong as it once was under David Shaw.
The Cardinals are ranked 80th in Defensive SP+. This secondary is a big concern, and that’s not a good sign against Williams and this talented offense.
Underdog Parlay of the Week
Vanderbilt ML +351 and New Mexico ML +588
$100 to Win $3,002.88
This is a long shot, as Vanderbilt and New Mexico are two of the worst teams in the FBS. However, there’s a lot to like about both the Commodores and Lobos this week.
Vanderbilt was only a six-point underdog when this spread opened, but a ton of action came in on Wake Forest after it was announced that Sam Hartman could play on Saturday. Hartman has been dealing with blood clots that led to him stepping away from the team last month, and there is a question of just how much he will play given his medical situation.
Vanderbilt has played well to start the season with dual-threat quarterback Mike Wright, and the Commodores can definitely keep this one close.
New Mexico won’t win many games this season, but Boise State is in disarray right now. The Broncos went 7-5 last year, and they were just blasted by Oregon State in their season opener. This offense looks lost and is ranked 80th in Offensive SP+, so the Lobos are worth a shot here as a home underdog.