I didn’t cash a single one of my NFL player prop best bets at Caesars Sportsbook last week! Not one! You’re welcome for offering up that primo fade material! With that, I’m changing things up moving forward and will gear more towards individual scenarios playing out instead of painting the picture for potential same game parlay legs. Hopefully the frame of mind treats the bottom line much kinder in Week 13 player prop betting action - SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Najee Harris 75+ Rushing Yards +225
It’s going to be wet and windy in the Steel City when the Steelers host the Cardinals on Sunday. While Arizona possesses a secondary I believe Kenny Pickett can continue flourishing against in the post-Matt Canada era, it’s their run D that I want to pick on with it ranked No. 30 overall and hemorrhaging a league-worst 140.1 yards and 5.3 yards per carry (No. 28) over the last three weeks. Though in a full blown timeshare with Jaylen Warren, Najee has exceeded his rushing attempts prop three of the last four weeks and will be called upon to help Pittsburgh salt this one away.
Dalton Schultz Over 47.5 Receiving Yards -115 | +240 Anytime Touchdown
With Denver serving up 233 yards per game to opposing passing games (No. 23), prop bettors will be running to the betting window to get pieces of Tank Dell and Nico Collins in what’s expected to be a high scoring game with Caesars currently offering the O/U at 47. I beg you to not be one of the masses and look the way of Dalton Schultz instead. The Broncos defense has been greatly improved since serving up that 70-burger to Miami!
Over the last month against the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns, Denver’s secondary has conceded a league-low 55.2 fantasy points and 44.9 percent catch rate with zero touchdowns to opposing wide receivers per The Edge from the 33rd Team. During that same stretch, it’s served up 57.4 fantasy points (No. 26), a 74.1 percent catch rate (No. 24), and 3 TD to tight ends. Schultz was quiet last week against a tough Jacksonville defense tough on tight ends (No. 2). He won’t be this week!
Brandon Aiyuk 100+ Receiving Yards +320 | +150 Anytime Touchdown
Last week proved to be a Deebo Samuel week after hogging nine of Brock Purdy’s 30 overall targets and turning them into a team-high 79 receiving yards. Naturally, this will be a Brandon Aiyuk week with the Niners best wide receiver a given to eat against an Eagles secondary (No. 29) that serves up yardage to opposing pass catchers like candy to kids on Halloween. Making this matchup all the more juicy is the fact that Philly serves up the most fantasy points to slot receivers where Aiyuk lines up a team-high 67.3 percent of the time. Big game incoming from No. 11!
Rachaad White Over 91.5 Combo Yards -117 | +375 First Touchdown Scorer
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers return from a disappointing road trip looking to get back into the win column and in the process improve their standing in the NFC playoff picture (No. 11). Though his team has only managed one win over the last six weeks, the Bucs RB1 still finished as a top-20 rusher in each game and I fully expect him to eat in this spot against a Panthers run defense he’s yet to have the pleasure of running up against this season.
Though much improved over the last three weeks (No. 13), Carolina concedes a tick less than 125 rushing yards per game (No. 24). Per The Edge, it’s equated to the third most fantasy points allowed to the position! He’s exceeded his rushing + receiving yards prop four of the last five weeks and had his number called an average of 16 times per game over the last month. Caesars Sportsbook currently has Tampa installed 5.5-point home favorites with one of the lowest totals of the Week 13 betting slate. I don’t envision fireworks consistently going off for the Bucs in this one since that’s not what their offense is predicated upon, but when they do, look for Rachaad White to be involved.
I’ll be out to fade Kyren Williams against the Browns stout run defense and ride Taysom Hill against the Lions once player props are posted for both players…