We came so close to destroying last week’s NFL player prop best bets at Caesars Sportsbook! Had we settled for average payouts instead of solely going for home runs in the Lions/Chargers game, we would’ve had a MONSTER Sunday. Jared Goff and Justin Herbert each threw for 300+ yards, but came up just short of 350 and 325 respectively – we needed three yards from the latter! Keenan Allen did cash a nice +480 ticket after smashing his 125+ impost, but Sam LaPorta wasn’t utilized enough to surpass his alt line with everything seemingly going the way of Amon-Ra St. Brown – hopefully you were able to add an alt line on him once posted as suggested. Fading Deshaun Watson proved to be a loser though we did cash on the under of his longest pass completion. As for Tony Pollard, we swung and missed big time with the Cowboys RB1 serving up another stinker. I personally traded him away from my home fantasy league team and suggest you do to – Rico Dowdle will continue to eat into more of his opportunity share. Let’s see if we can get in the green in Week 11 – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Jordan Love Over 300+ Passing Yards +550 | Longest Pass Completion Over 37.5 -119 | 2+ Touchdown Passes +115
Before getting into this breakdown, it must be known that Jordan Love – and the Green Bay Packers for that matter – has been kryptonite to my bankroll at Caesars all NFL betting season long. But if there was ever an opportunity for Green Bay’s QB1 to wake up from his multi-week hibernation, it would be this Sunday in Lambeau against a Chargers pass defense that’s been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster against the pass in allowing a league-high 291+ yards and 2.0 passing TD per game when playing away from SoFi.
While Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack pace a formidable pass rush with LA the owner of an 8.2 sack percentage (No. 8), it’s pressure rate only chimes in at 33.2 percent (No. 21) and the Cheeseheads’ front wall has only allowed Love to get thrown to the turf 5.9 percent of the time (No. 12). Green Bay’s QB1 showed signs of being on the same page with his receivers last week after throwing for a season-best 289 yards and 2 TD while connecting on multiple 35+ yard bombs. Mother Nature isn’t expected to hamper the game environment, so hopefully Love is forced to let it fly in a likely shootout with Justin Herbert!
David Montgomery Under 49.5 Rushing Yards -101 | Longest Rush Under 13.5 Yards -105
This is undoubtedly a spot David Montgomery has had circled on his personal calendar ever since Chicago elected to allow him to walk in the offseason after being a loyal and productive member of the Bears roster the first four seasons of his professional career. Try as he might to show Chicago what they’re missing out on this season, I can’t ignore the fact that rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is taking the opportunity share away from the veteran after going off the last few weeks. In his return to the huddle last week, Monty ripped the Bolts for 116 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries in a game that played wide open with Jared Goff and Justin Herbert delivering with 300+ passing yard performances.
A bulk of that output was collected on a crazy 75-yard touchdown scamper late in the second quarter. As bad the Bears have been defending the pass (No. 26), they’ve been a stonewall against the run in allowing 76 YPG (No. 2) and league-best 3.2 yards per carry. Over the last month, Chicago’s held Josh Jacobs to 35 yards on 11 carries with a long of 11 yards, Austin Ekeler to 29 yards on 15 carries with a long of seven yards, Alvin Kamara to 26 yards on nine carries with a long of 13 yards, and Chuba Hubbard to 23 yards on nine carries with a long on nine yards. Think Montez Sweat and Co. can’t put a lid on old man Montgomery - I do!
Rashee Rice 75+ Receiving Yards +450 | Over 4.5 Total Receptions +120 | Anytime Touchdown +188
Much like Super Bowl LVII, I expect the offenses for both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs to flourish come the rematch under the lights of Monday Night Football. Philly is likely to attack KC on the ground with Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit more beatable with the run (No. 17) than through the air (No. 5). On the flipside, Patrick Mahomes and Co. will do the exact opposite with Isiah Pacheco likely to struggle on the ground against Philly’s vaunted run D (No. 1) and excel against its porous secondary that’s allowed the opposition to rip it for 257 yards (No. 28) and league-worst 2.1 passing touchdowns per game.
While Travis Kelce will more than likely be the clamored for target of No. 15 per usual, Rashee Rice will play a big role in determining the outcome of this heavyweight matchup at Caesars Sportsbook. The rookie wide receiver is second on the roster with a 12.5 percent target share and has garnered at least five targets in five of his last seven starts. On top of that, he’s hit paydirt in three of the Chiefs last five games. While his 5.0 ADOT leaves much to be desired letting it be known that he’ll need to put in work to exceed this impost, I can’t think of a better stop unit to break one against which makes the juice worth the squeeze in hopes of cashing this receiving yards alt line in.