We knocked it out of the park targeting the Texans C.J. Stroud in last week’s home tilt against the Bucs. He shredded Tampa’s secondary to set a number of rookie passing records and cashed some juicy props along the way which included 300+ passing yards (+300) and 3+ TD passes (+320). Unfortunately Tyreek Hill failed to walk the walk after proclaiming he’d go for 250 and two tuddies forcing us to take a collar in a game many envisioned would be a shootout; the 21-14 final failed to deliver! Saquon Barkley was the only viable offensive threat for the Giants in the desert throw down with the Raiders. He went over his scrimmage yards prop but came 10 yards away from 100+ rushing yards and failed to log a single touchdown let alone two. Regardless, it was still a profitable week attacking the player prop market at Caesars Sportsbook. Here’s to doing it again in Week 10 – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Deshaun Watson Under 192.5 Passing Yards -117 | Longest Pass Completion Under 32.5 -121 | Under 0.5 Touchdown Passes +165
The Browns got their QB1 back under center last week in a tune-up against the Arizona Cardinals. The box score suggests Deshaun Watson is back to being 100 percent with No. 4 playing to a 107.5 QB rating by way of completing 19-of-30 passes for 219 yards and 2:0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt. But if you actually watched that game, you know the showing was much more problematic than it shows on paper. Watson was found grimacing after nearly every pass attempt. He also needed to put everything he had into each deep pass in hopes of connecting with Amari Cooper and Co. downfield. This all coming against the below average secondary of the Cardinals (No. 17) that owns the worst pressure rate in the game.
While Baltimore owns a middling pressure rate (No. 15), it still averages a league-best 3.9 sacks per game that already got to the Browns’ pass pro for four sacks back in Week 4. Now granted, it was DTR under center and not Watson, his front wall is thinned out with Jedrick Wills on the shelf. If Cleveland competes in this game, it’ll be because of Myles Garret and Co. balling out. It won’t be because of the offense. I’m confidently fading Watson at Caesars in this pivotal AFC North clash with the Browns looking to snap a three-game losing streak to the Ravens at M&T.
Tony Pollard 100+ Rushing Yards +175 | Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts -123 | 2+ Touchdowns +380
The fantasy football community has paid dearly for putting their faith into Tony Pollard at the outset of the NFL betting season. I’m one of them! If you can believe it, TP20 hasn’t scored a touchdown since the opening week of the year when he went for 70 yards and a pair of end zone saunters against the GMEN in the impressive 40-0 romp that saw Dallas easily cover the laughable 3-point spread. Fast forward nine weeks, and the Cowboys are laying 17-points in a game that possesses a 39-point total at Caesars Sportsbook.
Coming off a tough loss in the City of Brotherly Love, I expect Big D to to end this thing quick with a huge first half performance and then take the foot off the gas en route to logging win No. 6 on the season. Pollard should play a substantial role and receive upwards of 20 carries with a number likely to occur in the red zone and goal-to-go scenarios. While Dak Prescott has thrived through the air mostly due to CeeDee Lamb putting forth the best campaign of his young career and Jake Ferguson coming into his own, Dallas isn’t winning anything this year if it can’t get going on the ground. As such, look for McCarthy to feed his RB1 so as to build up some much needed confidence for the stretch run and beyond.
Jared Goff 350+ Passing Yards +650 | Justin Herbert 325+ Passing Yards +340 | Sam LaPorta 75+ Receiving Yards +270 | Keenan Allen 125+ Receiving Yards +480
There’s only a handful of games on the Week 10 betting slate with an O/U of 45+ points. The matchup between the Lions and Chargers happens to be one of them, and I fully expect Jared Goff and the rested Lions to go into SoFi and put on a show. LA is however no pushover when it comes to getting things done on the offensive side of the ball, and you have to imagine Justin Herbert and his mates will be thrilled to not have to run up against the imposing force that’s been the New York Jets defense regardless of how improved Detroit has been on that side of the ball.
Both stop units thrive at stopping the run with Detroit No. 2 and Los Angeles No. 7, but have been more beatable through the air where the Lions have served up 220+ yards per game (No. 15) while the Bolts have been ripped for a league-worst 286 yards per game. That brings all the big names into the equation headlined by both quarterbacks who we’ll bank on having huge showings and reel in a tremendous rate of return should the game truly play out to the barnburner I expect it to. I couldn’t find an alt line on Amon-Ra St. Brown, but feel free to add him should Caesars post one. Regardless, look for Sam LaPorta to take advantage of the Chargers leaky defense against the tight end position (No. 28), and for Keenan Allen to thrive as Herbert’s primary target.