Wednesday, May 10 MLB Best Bets

Last Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 1-1 to turn a very small profit at PointsBet Sportsbook. With the F5 under scratched due to Merrill Kelly getting pushed back to the series opener against Washington, our night began in Chicago where Dylan Cease failed to come through for us by coming up two strikeouts short of going over his K prop against Minnesota. The four issued walks hurt though I question him getting yanked after only throwing 97 pitches through five innings. It’s nearly the middle of May – I think his arm could’ve handled another inning. We earned the split by cashing our -1 wager on the Angels who got the job done with three in the ninth to shock the Cardinals on the road. Here’s to reeling in some real green with this installment of Hump Day Bests – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 54-54-3 (-$295)

LW: 8-14 (-$840)

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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians

The Tigers are rolling folks! They just went into Cleveland and took the series opener as huge underdogs on Monday night. We’re already backing them on Tuesday night against Shane Bieber, and we’ll do the same in the series concluder. And yes, I’m banking on Detroit busting out the brooms with Eduardo Rodriguez on the bump looking to build upon five straight exceptional starts. The righty just tossed eight innings of shutout ball at the Mets and registered 9 K! That makes it a 33:4 K/BB ratio over his last 34.2 innings with the southpaw logging three wins during that stretch.

The Guardians continue to have all kinds of issues plating runs. Monday’s series opener saw them push a pair across the plate which makes it five of the last eight in which it failed to score at least three runs. Jose Ramirez and co. have been brutal against LHP in going 4-9 (-$960) while averaging just 3.5 runs per game (No. 24). Peyton Battenfield shined his last time out in tossing seven innings of 2 ER ball with 7 K against the Twins, but I’ll pay up and make him show me that wasn’t an anomaly. FYI, he still ended up taking the loss in that start. He can thank Cleveland’s offense for that.

BET THE TIGERS

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Another fabulous pitching matchup is set to go down in the second and final game of this mini interleague set between the Blue Jays and Phillies with Kevin Gausman set to square off against Zack Wheeler. With both hurlers getting roughed up in their most recent turns, I’m expecting each to come out firing early which leads to a competitive low scorer early on. Toronto’s righty was just blasted for a season-worst 8 ER in 3.1 innings by the Red Sox. It marked the second time in 2023 that he was raked for 7+ earned runs.

The start after that, he tossed seven shutout innings at the Yankees with 11 K in the Bronx. I’m not buying into the bludgeoning and fully expect him to get back on track in this late afternoon start with him nearly untouchable under the sun evidenced by his 0.00 ERA and 38:4 K/BB ratio over 26 innings and four starts. I’m a bit more skeptical about Zach Wheeler. The righty has conceded at least 3 ER in three of his last four turns and hasn’t been economical with his pitch counts all season long. Toronto owns the advantage in the pen as well. Gimme the road team in the series concluder!

BET THE BLUE JAYS

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

I faded the Redbirds in the series opener on Monday night both in the F5 as well as the FG. I ended up 0-1-1 but had runners on 2^nd and third with one out in the bottom of the fifth and couldn’t get there. The night belonged to former Cub Wilson Contreras who singlehandedly led St. Louis to the 3-1 win. Jordan Montgomery ended his losing streak last time out after tossing six innings of 2 ER ball at the Tigers. However, the Cardinals ultimately went on to lose that game once he departed after the bullpen gave up three immediate runs. That moved the team to 0-5 in his last five trips to the bump.

As for Chicago, it’s come out victorious in five of Justin Steele’s seven overall starts with the kid solidifying himself as the man atop the Cubs starting rotation. While his stuff doesn’t wow, the kids got impeccable control (2.3 BB/9) and has proven to be incredibly tough to square up with the lefty only surrendering 6.2 hits per nine innings and only 15.8 percent of the hits conceded being of the hard contact variety (No. 4). FYI – league average is nearly 28 percent. The southpaw is throwing with extreme confidence right now! St. Louis isn’t a good 4-seamer hitting team per Baseball Savant, and they haven’t been much to write home about against the slider either. Those are Steele’s primary pitches so it comes to reason he once against excels in this spot and has a great shot of keeping that unblemished record intact while adding another tally in the win column.

BET THE CUBS

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