Wednesday, April 5 MLB Best Bets

By Mike Rose

One of the best things about betting baseball is day baseball! Wednesday’s slate offers up 13 games for MLB bettors to sink their teeth into with only one set to play under the lights later in the evening. We got out to a decent start to our 2023 MLB betting season at PointsBet Sportsbook over the weekend, but I’ve only just begun! If a fan of betting K props and ugly home dogs, then you’re going to want a piece of this action! The following are my three MLB Best Bets for Hump Day – SLAM YOUR MAN!!


YTD: 3-2 ($61)


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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds


The Cubbies failed to rip the cover off the ball in their weekend set with the Brew Crew. However, Nico Hoerner and Co. did a solid job standing in the box against the likes of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Eric Lauer and lived to tell about it with the trio only combining for 17 Ks through 16.1 combined innings. The showing has Chicago ranked No. 4 in strikeouts. While early, it’s a marked improvement for a team that struck out a whopping 1,448 times a season ago (No. 25)! I recommended hitting the over of Hunter Greene’s K prop in his season opening start against the Pirates last Thursday. However, I thought it would surface at 6.5 but instead it hit the board 7.5. It looks like PointsBet isn’t fooling around lining this kid’s K prop early on! With the righty still managing to exceed his inflated target, I expect another big number to hit the board in his second assignment regardless of Chicago only fanning 19 times through the 15 innings Greene threw at them last season (7.1 K/9). With influenced MLB bettors running to the window to hit the over in his second go-round, we might even get a plus-money return on the under!




Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins


If you read last Friday’s MLB Best Bet article, you know I’m extremely bullish on Jesus Luzardo for the entirety of the 2023 MLB betting season and plan on backing him more times than not over the course of the regular season. So far so good with that train of thought after he earned his first win of the year in his 2023 debut by tossing 5.2 innings of shutout ball at the Mets. While the 5:4 K/BB ratio leaves a little cause for concern, the Twins rank in the middle of the pack in terms of taking walks while NY sports the second-best batting eye early on. Minny’s only batting .250 against left-handed pitching so far, and its power numbers were suppressed against south paws last season. That could all change in 2023, but I’m willing to take another stab with Luzardo in this spot running up against former Marlin Pablo Lopez who was great against KC in his Twins debut. While pretty rock solid through 50 total Marlins Park starts, I fully expect Jazz Chisholm and Co. to take to the playing field motivated to get the best of their former teammate. We’ll bypass Miami’s bothersome bullpen and press our luck with another F5 wager on Luzardo instead.




San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago White Sox


I’m still kicking myself for not hitting the over of Dylan Cease’s K prop in his debut at Houston last Thursday night. All the fifth year starter did was go out and throw 6.1 innings of 1 ER ball while racking up 10 strikeouts against the Astros. Unfortunately, he destroyed his 6.5 strikeout prop in the process which leads me to believe oddsmakers will hang an inflated number for start number two. It wouldn’t shock me in the last if this bad boy hits the board 7.5 and is bet up to 8! Regardless, we’ll be on the over confidently knowing full well a cushy matchup lies before him in the form of a San Francisco Giants batting order that’s struck out a league-worst 41 times in only 98 at-bats. Cease only needed 86 pitches to get into the sixth inning against a much tougher Astros lineup in his debut. San Fran’s only taken eight walks (No. 28) and already ranks amongst the worst in the league in the most pertinent of offensive stat categories. Though it’s early, I fully expect the Giants free-swinging offense to have major issues dealing with the stuff Cease throws their way in his 2023 Guaranteed Rate Field debut.




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