Wednesday, April 12 MLB Best Bets

By Mike Rose

We went on to cash both MLB Best Bets last Wednesday with the game between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds getting rained out. Jesus Luzardo got us into the win column first after spinning seven innings of 1 ER ball with 10 K against the Twins. Thankfully the Marlins scratched across a run in the first inning to allow us to cash our F5 wager over at PointsBet Sportsbook. We closed the night out with our second ticket cash on the over of Dylan Cease’s K prop that opened 7.5 +102 and closed -155! Due to issuing a handful of walks, the Palehose strikeout artist only threw five innings but did manage to fan another eight batters raising his seasonal output to 18 through two starts. That won’t be the last time I recommend a Cease over! The following are my three MLB Best Bets for Hump Day, April 12 – SLAM YOUR MAN!!


YTD: 12-11 ($272)

LW: 9-9 ($211)


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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies


At some point, Jack Flaherty is going to get a handle on his control issues. I mean how can he not considering he gets paid millions of dollars to pitch for the Cardinals – 5.4M to be exact – and is a seven-year veteran that owns a career 3.4 BB/9 – that includes this season’s 11.7 through two starts. I just hope it doesn’t occur in this spot at Coors running up against the wild gas can otherwise known as Jose Urena. We already faded the Rockies right-hander in a big way by backing Mackenzie Gore and the Nats in the first five innings of his most recent start. With Washington plating a pair of runs in each of the first four innings, we went on to cash that ticket with relative ease.


Though both of these offenses have struggled a bit against RHP to date, I can’t help but think each will have ample opportunities to hang some crooked numbers on the board staring back at hurlers sporting absurd walk rates. I already made not of Flaherty’s, but Urena’s clocks in at an even more laughable 12.6 and he’s only registered one strikeout through five combined innings. If this turns into another 1-0 Coors final shoot me and take me out of my misery!




Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays


So the Rays are going 162-0 and will cover every run-line along the way, right? All kidding aside, it’s been a helluva start for Tampa Bay who’s already built a three-game lead atop the AL East standings. Zac Eflin has been a contributor to the 9-0 start coming up with wins in his first two starts by tossing 11 combined innings of 12 hit (1 HR) and 4 ER ball while logging an impressive 12:1 K/BB ratio. If he keeps that up, he’ll undoubtedly find himself on a number of fantasy baseball championship rosters after being snatched from the waiver wire.


But before we get all excited about what the right-hander has done thus far, let us remember that the efforts were logged against the Tigers and A’s – two teams ranked No. 30 and No. 28 in OPS respectively. Let’s see how he does when he faces a Boston lineup ranked No. 3 with a scorching hot Rafael Devers ripping the cover off the baseball. This wager has everything to do with Eflin showing me he’s legit. I don’t even care that Chris Sale has already given up 4 HR and issued 5 BB through eight combined innings. I’m backing the road dogs regardless in this “Show Me” spot!




Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves


I don’t know about you, but I know where I’ll be when the Reds and Braves close their three-game set out from Truist Park on Wednesday night! Does it get any better than a pair of fireballer strikeout artists squaring off against one another? I think not! We’re yet to see what a complete body of work looks like for Hunter Greene in 2023. His first two starts only saw him combine for eight innings due to issuing six free passes that led to elevated pitch counts (83, 93). As powerful a lineup Atlanta possesses, there’s a lot of swing and miss up and down it evidenced by a 23 percent K rate (No. 15) that’s been closer to 29 percent over the last three games. Greene’s K Prop has opened and closed 7.5 at PointsBet.


Same goes for Spencer Strider who eclipsed it both times by tallying 9 K in both outings against the Padres and Nationals – teams currently ranked amongst the Top-10 in K rate. Cincinnati clocks in at No. 22! So long as Greene’s control doesn’t get the best of him, MLB bettors should be privy to an “anything you can do I can do better” type standoff between two up-and-coming phenoms. I expect nothing but zeros and a plethora of strikeouts early on provided both kids bring their “A” stuff to the bump.




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