Valspar Championship Picks

By Tom Wilkinson

This week’s Valspar Championship won’t have the look of last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as many of the world’s top players are bypassing this event. We at least have a few big names who are teeing it up including Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns and Matt Fitzpatrick. Burns is the two-time defending champion of this event and he is trying to win an event for the third straight time, something that has not been done since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic from 2009-2011. Thomas is listed as the golf betting favorite at BetRivers. Let’s look at Valspar Championship picks.


Venue: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) is a par 71 that measures 7,340 yards. It is located just north of Tampa, Florida and has tree-lined fairways. It features a close stretch of holes known as the ‘Snake Pit.’ It is two tough par-4s along with a long 200-yard par 3.


Last Year: Sam Burns defeated Davis Riley on the second playoff hole to win the Valspar Championship for the second straight year. Justin Thomas and Matthew NeSmith finished tied for third, while Matt Fitzpatrick and Brian Harman tied for fifth.


TV Coverage: NBC & Golf Channel


Valspar Championship Odds

Thomas, Justin +900

Spieth, Jordan +1200

Fitzpatrick, Matthew +1400

Burns, Sam +1600

Rose, Justin +1800

Bradley, Keegan +2000

Fleetwood, Tommy +2200

Hadwin, Adam +2200

Riley, Davis +2800

Harman, Brian +3300

Clark, Wyndham +3300

McCarthy, Denny +3300

Suh, Justin +3500

McNealy, Maverick +4000

Moore, Taylor +4000

Woodland, Gary +4000

Griffin, Ben +4500

Jaeger, Stephan +5000

Rai, Aaron +5000

Wu, Brandon +6000

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +6600

Perez, Victor +6600

Byeong Hun An +6600

Gordon, Will +6600

Taylor, Nick +6600

Hossler, Beau +6600

Poston, J.T. +6600

Dahmen, Joel +6600

Vegas, Jhonattan +6600

Duncan, Tyler +6600

Lashley, Nate +8000

Shelton, Robby +8000

Lingmerth, David +8000

List, Luke +8000

Rodgers, Patrick +8000

Ryder, Sam +8000

Higgo, Garrick +8000

Smalley, Alex +9000

Hickok, Kramer +9000

Cole, Eric +9000

Hodges, Lee +9000

Bhatia, Akshay +9000

All other players are listed with odds of +10000 or more




Justin Thomas +1100


The favorite in golf betting has been a losing proposition over the years, and that continued again last week at The PLAYERS Championship with Rahm withdrawing and McIlroy missing the cut. Thomas has shown some signs he is getting close to winning, but he is still not there yet. Even though this field is weak, I still can’t take Thomas as the favorite.


Value Picks


Burns, Sam +1600


I know that no player has won a tournament in three straight years in more than a decade, but I can’t pass up this price on Sam Burns. I think he should be right behind Thomas or perhaps even with him in terms of the odds. As much as I like Thomas, what has he done of late to deserve being a favorite? Burns has proven he likes this course and I think he definitely could be in the mix again this week and we get 16-1.


Bradley, Keegan +2000


If Bradley can avoid a melt-down then he should be in contention this week. He has had one bad round that takes him out of the mix. He has thrived in his career on this course and two years ago he was right with Burns at the end. Bradley can definitely compete with this field this week.


Riley, Davis +2800


Is this the week for Riley to get his first PGA Tour win? It sure could be considering Valspar has been a good site for first-time winners. It happened in 2011, 2012, 2017 and in 2021. He finished 2nd last year to Burns. He has had a number of top 20 finishes in his career and he is ready to win.


Clark, Wyndham +3300


Clark should do well on a course that demands accuracy and is long. He has played well on this course in the past with a 37th place finish in 2019 which was his debut on the course. This year has been a good one for Clark who has solid numbers on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained. He could be in the mix this week and we get a decent price.


Wu, Brandon +6000


I’ll throw one longshot in here and go with Wu. He has been playing well this year and he did okay last season in this event, finishing 33rd. He had a strong finish at TPC Sawgrass last week with a 19th place finish. He finished 5th in Strokes Gained Putting last week. I’ll take a flyer on him at big odds.


Check out Valspar Championship odds at BetRivers.