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May 10, 2023
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May 11, 2023
Things have a way of evening out and the house always gets paid. My heater on USFL picks ended with a resounding thud last week with several upsets and a closer than expected contest between the Birmingham Stallions and Pittsburgh Maulers. One thing that didn’t change is the undefeated status of the New Orleans Breakers, who finished their sweep of the best teams from a season ago knocking off New Jersey 20-17 covering the 2.5-point USFL betting line and improving to 4-0 as a top USFL pick against the spread. The Breakers thumped Birmingham in Week 3 solidifying their position as the top club in the USFL futures market.
The biggest upset of Week 4 saw the Memphis Showboats get their first win handing Michigan its second straight loss, 29-10. The Boats were a 6.5-point dog going into that one earning their first payout. And Houston pounded Case Cookus with six sacks en route to a 41-16 win over the Stars improving to 2-2. There is more parity in the league this season with every team getting at least one victory with New Orleans the lone unbeaten. Week 5 betting action starts on Saturday with a pair of games. After winning their first two Michigan looked awful in losses to New Jersey and Memphis by a combined 34 points. The offense shriveled up producing just 23 points in those games. Still, the Panthers opened as a 2-point favorite at BetRivers sportsbook. The best team in the league brings down the curtain on Week 5 with the Breakers the biggest USFL favorite this week laying 8-points to Memphis.
USFL Week 5 Schedule
Pittsburgh Maulers (1-3) at Michigan Panthers (2-2)
Date and Time: Saturday, May 13, 12:30 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: Michigan -4, O/U 41
Maulers at Panthers TV Coverage: USA
As good as the Michigan Panthers looked the first two weeks they were equally bad the last two dropping both by an average of 17 points while scoring just 23 points. The QB usually gets the blame when the offense struggles and in this case it’s deserved. Josh Love and Carson Strong combined to throw for only 134 yards with each tossing a pick, and four giveaways proved deadly. Pittsburgh has its own struggles on offense, but at least they look more competitive than last year. The Maulers played champion Birmingham tough in a 4-point setback last week failing again to convert inside the red zone. They have just one TD in 12 red zone visits this season and Michigan’s defense is looking to regain the swagger it had earlier. Those areas lead me to back the UNDER while taking the points on an improved Maulers squad.
USFL Prediction: Pittsburgh +4 / UNDER 41
Houston Gamblers (2-2) at Birmingham Stallions (3-1)
Date and Time: Saturday, May 13, 4 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: Birmingham -4.5, O/U 49
Gamblers at Stallions TV Coverage: FOX
It took a few games but the Gamblers are benefitting from the dual-threat ability of Kenji Bahar, who was 15 of 21 for 230 yards and two TDs passing. Mark Thompson had a big day rushing for 134 yards and three scores for a balanced attack that amassed 463 yards and averaged 7.5 yards per play. The Stallions have fallen back to the pack following a 14-point loss in Week 3 and a narrow 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as an 8-point favorite on the USFL betting line. Birmingham has been vulnerable on defense surrendering 65 points the last two weeks and Houston has it figured out giving them an edge.
USFL Prediction: Houston +4.5 / OVER 49
New Jersey Generals (2-2) at Philadelphia Stars (1-3)
Date and Time: Sunday, May 14, 12 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: New Jersey -6.5, O/U 42.5
Generals at Stars TV Coverage: NBC
New Jersey has the best defense in the USFL, according to New Orleans coach John DeFilippo. The Generals held the explosive Breakers to their lowest point total, though the offense failed to take advantage in the 20-17 setback. Facing a nasty group is the last thing Philadelphia and Case Cookus want. Sacked six times last week, Cookus has been taken down at least four times in every game and the offense has struggled because of it. New Jersey will be extra motivated for revenge with the teams playing for the first time since the Stars’ upset win in the semifinal playoff round last June.
USFL Prediction: New Jersey -6.5 / OVER 42
Memphis Showboats (1-3) at New Orleans Breakers (4-0)
Date and Time: Sunday, May `4, 3 p.m. ET
Opening Odds: New Orleans -8, O/U 47.5
Showboats at Breakers TV Coverage: FOX
On paper this game looks like a blowout which is why New Orleans is a big USFL favorite this week. The top offense in terms of points and yards per game sputtered against New Jersey yet the Breakers still prevailed against a quality opponent. After giving up an average of 33 points in their first three games, the Boats allowed only 10 in last week’s win over Michigan. The Panthers aided in that figure with four giveaways and I’m not ready to say the club has turned a corner. Issues remain on offense for Memphis leading me to back the Breakers with plenty of points to cash the OVER
USFL Prediction: New Orleans -8 / OVER 47.5
Check out the latest USFL betting odds at BetRivers.
