The main event this week in the UFC has Brendan Allen heavily favored against Paul Craig. The event, titled UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig, takes place on Saturday, November 18 in Las Vegas, Nevada. This bout is one of 15 fights, all of which can be seen on . Allen comes into this fight with a record of 22-5, while Craig is 17-6-1 in his career. Allen is listed as more than a 4-1 favorite to win this fight in UFC betting odds at . Let’s look at the bout and UFC picks.
Allen has a record of 22-5 overall. He started his career at 12-3 and he when he came into the UFC he did very well and he now has a 10-2 record in the UFC. He has won five of his last six bouts overall. He got a win against Sam Alvey by rear-naked choke submission, he beat Jacob Malkoun by unanimous decision, took out Krzysztof Jotko by rear-naked choke submission, he won against André Muniz by rear-naked choke submission, and he took out Bruno Silva by rear-naked choke submission. His loss was to Chris Curtis by TKO. Allen has plenty of experience, as he has been a pro since 2015. Most of his finishes have come by submission, as he has 13 submission wins. He also has five wins by TKO/KO.
Paul Craig (17-6-1, 9-6-1 UFC)
Craig has a record of 17-6-1 overall. He was unbeaten before coming into the UFC and he is 9-6-1 in the UFC. He has won four of his last six fights. He won by TKO against Maurício Rua and he also won by TKO against Jamahal Hill and Andre Muniz. He defeated Nikita Krylov by triangle choke submission. The two losses were to Volkan Oezdemir by unanimous decision and Johnny Walker by TKO. Craigh has been around since 2013 in MMA and he has similar skills to Allen. He has 13 wins by submission and four by TKO/KO.
UFC Odds at Caesars
Brendan Allen -450
Paul Craig +350
Strikes landed per minute: Allen 3.96 /Craig 2.57
Striking Accuracy: Allen 53% /Craig 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Allen 3.89/Craig 2.85
Defense: Allen 46% /Craig 46%
Takedown average: Allen 1.22/Craig 1.91
Takedown Accuracy: Allen 42%/Craig 23%
Takedowns defended: Allen 55%/Craig 42%
Submission average: Allen 1.6/Craig 1.7
We swept our UFC 295 picks last week with Pereira winning and the fight going over 1.5 rounds. In this fight on Saturday night, we have another big favorite. I simply don’t lay big prices so I am not laying more than 4-1 on Allen. I think Allen will win, as he has the better overall skills, but I don’t know that he should be that big a favorite. The price should probably be half what it is, but I can’t make a real case for taking Craig, even at the big number.
This should be a fight that sees a finish, but finding a decent rounds prop may be tough to do. Many of the round props out there have the rounds at 1.5 and I want no part of that number. We saw last week when we had a rounds winner that it doesn’t take much to go over 1.5 rounds. I prefer looking for a 2.5 number or a 3.5 number instead and taking the rounds to go under. If you want to consider the props then a couple could be worth taking. It seems likely that this fight will end in a finish so we would get a better price on Allen to win by submission. I don’t know that the number will be good enough to entice me, but it is worth a look. If you want to take a flyer on Craig then you may be wanting to simply go for a huge payout and take Craig to win by submission. I think Allen will win the fight, but it is not as sure a bet as the big odds would suggest.