UFC 295 on Saturday in New York features what should be a very competitive main event with Jiří Procházka taking on Alex Pereira. There are a total of 13 fights on the UFC 295 card with five on pay-per-view and the other eight on ESPN News, ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. Procházka comes into the main event with a record of is 29-3-1, while Pereira is 8-2 in his career. These two fighters are known as potent strikers, so we should see a lot of action in this main event. Let’s look at UFC 295 picks.
Alex Pereira -130
Jiří Procházka +106
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Jiří Procházka (29-3-1)
Procházka has a very impressive overall record but it should be noted he has only fought in the UFC three times. He defeated Volkan Oezdemir by KO, Dominick Reyes by KO, and Glover Teixeira by submission. We know he can finish, as 28 of his 29 wins are by finish. He has 25 wins by TKO/KO and three by submission.
Alex Pereira (8-2)
Pereira doesn’t have as much overall experience as Procházka but he has more UFC experience, as he is 5-1 in the UFC. He defeated Andreas Michailidis by TKO, Bruno Silva by unanimous decision, Sean Strickland by KO, Israel Adesanya by TKO, and Jan Błachowicz by split decision. He lost to Israel Adesanya by KO. Pereira has six wins by TKO/KO and two by decision.
Procházka vs. Pereira
The winner of this fight will take the vacant 205-pound title. Procházka submitted Glover Teixeira at UFC 275 to become champion, but had to later vacate his belt because of injury. Teixeira is a mentor for Pereira and Pereira would like to win this fight for him. “I’m not going into this fight with mixed emotions about vengeance,” Pereira said to the media, “I don’t want to play that game. I want to go with a very positive mindset. I’m going to fight with the mindset that they haven’t even fought before. But looking into the other side of being able to bring Glover his belt back and put it back in the gym, that means a lot to me.”
Procházka said that Pereira doesn’t have the power to knock him out. “No,” said Prochazka to the media, “Not like that. Yes, he has the power to beat anybody–everybody at this level does. But not against me. I can’t speak for Alex, but I will do everything to win this fight.” Procházka said that he has more than one path to victory. “I will do whatever it takes,” said Prochazka to the media, “I am open to finding any way to win. It doesn’t matter. I will attack and not stop. I am going to find a weak point, and I will attack and not stop until I win.”
Strikes landed per minute: Procházka 5.77 / Pereira 5.11
Striking Accuracy: Procházka 55% / Pereira 62%
Strikes absorbed per minute: Procházka 5.40 / Pereira 3.70
Defense: Procházka 40% / Pereira 51%
Takedown average: Procházka 0.38 / Pereira 0.22
Takedown Accuracy: Procházka 100% / Pereira 100%
Takedowns defended: Procházka 68% / Pereira 70%
Submission average: Procházka 0.4/ Pereira 0.2
I know that Procházka has a very impressive record, but just who has he really beaten? He has just three UFC fights and I don’t know that his three wins were against the best the UFC has to offer. That changes here, as Pereira is at the top of the food chain. Procházka has power, but so does Pereira. I think Pereira can win this fight by picking his spots, staying out of danger and winning by decision. I don’t think that Procházka can win that way.
Since I think Pereira will get the win, I will take him and lay the small number. I also think the rounds are a very good play in this fight. You can get 1.5 rounds and get plus money on the over at nearly 2-1. I think we have a good chance to sweep the picks with Pereira and the rounds to go over the total.
Bet UFC 295 right now at BetRivers.