Pain. That’s the only way to describe how last week’s MLB Best Bets went. We only cashed eight of 22 overall investments and gave a whopping $840 back to BetRivers Sportsbook which finds us back to .500 and down nearly three units for the MLB betting season. Unacceptable! Tuesday just so happened to be our best night of the week after cashing all four bets starting with the under of Roansy Contreras’ 16.5 pitching outs prop. We squeezed that one out after the righty tallied 16! We had to sweat the over of Mason Miller’s K prop as well with the rookie tallying a pair in the 7th to just go over his 5.5 impost. The F5 and FG over in Tinseltown was a much smoother ride with the Dodgers peppering the Phillies pen for nine in the last two innings. Hopefully tonight’s best bets are more of the smooth sailing variety – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 54-54-3 (-$295)
LW: 8-14 (-$840)
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Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
While Boston is smoldering hot right now having scratched the win column in eight of nine to catapult itself back into wild card contention, I don’t like the Red Sox in this series opener with the NL East leading Braves. Though it will have been eight days since Charlie Morton took to the starting bump for Atlanta, I simply can’t entertain the thought of hitching my wagon to Nick Pivetta in Truist where the Braves have actually been flat-out awful in going 9-8 and costing MLB bettors upward of $340 overall.
Atlanta did however just take two of three from the upstart Orioles in front of the hometown faithful, and the Red Sox right-hander has given up at least 3 ER in each of his last four starts. He only just logged his first quality start of the season last time out at home against Toronto, but his preferred pitch types simply don’t mesh with Ronald Acuna Jr. and co. who rake the fastball, curve, and slider for impressive run values per Baseball Savant. I’m not at all enamored with Morton, but it’s the Braves offense we’ll be banking on to cash this ticket!
BET THE BRAVES
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Don’t look now, but the Detroit Tigers are in the AL Central pennant mix with A.J. Hinch’s troops cashing on the baseball odds in six of their last nine games. The offense enters this crucial early-season series with Cleveland averaging 5.2 runs per game during that stretch and has gone for 6+ in four of the last six. Plating runs is something Cleveland has been allergic to for a number of years now, but it’s been exceptionally bad through the first month-plus of 2023 with the team ranking out dead last in OPS and home runs and No. 29 in batting average and run per game (3.6).
One area the Guardians have shined however is in the stolen bases department. Its ability to swipe 37 bases (No. 4) has allowed it to win a number of hotly contested low scoring games. All three matchups combined for low scorers when these teams met up in Motown back in mid-April. Though 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 30:12 K/BB ratio, Shane Bieber is no longer the dominant ace he once was. While Michael Lorenzen hasn’t wow’d through four starts, he’s been nearly unhittable under the lights (.175 BAA through 12.0 IP). I can’t pass on the type of payback linemakers will be offering up should that trend continue against the weak-hitting Guardians.
BET THE TIGERS
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Both Miami and Arizona have wild-card aspirations entering the second week of May. The teams collided in South Beach in mid-April where the Fish took two of three low scoring affairs. After squaring off against Zac Gallen in Monday’s series opener, the Marlins bats will get a reprieve on Tuesday night with Brandon Pfaadt making his home debut after getting ripped for nine hits (4 HR) and 7 ER in his MLB debut at Texas. Evidenced by the outcome of that contest, I don’t think the right-hander is ready to throw in the pros.
But you know who is? That’s right, none other than left-hander Jesus Luzardo who we’ve ridden multiple times this season. I thought he was dead in the water early on in his most recent start against Atlanta who tagged him for three early runs, but the southpaw persevered and nearly churned out a quality effort. The stuff is there people! His velocity, called strikes + whiff percentage, and swinging strikes percentage are all elite. Zona’s been a .500 team against LHP. I foresee Jazz Chisholm and co. giving him the run support needed to log his first win in nearly a month! As such, I’m comfortable turning this into a -1 wager by betting Miami both on the moneyline and run-line over at BetRivers.
BET THE MARLINS
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