Tuesday, May 2 MLB Best Bets

By Mike Rose

Another week of MLB Best Bets is in the books! We went 12-10 for a net gain of $213 at BetRivers Sportsbook making it upwards of 5 units of profit through the first month of the MLB betting season. I correctly predicted the Rays first home loss last Tuesday night when Luis Garcia and the Astros dominated en route to logging the impressive 5-0 win which led to Houston taking the series the following night. Though six runs eclipsed our F5 wager on the over between the White Sox and Blue Jays, the FG over failed to get there after Chicago was shutout 7-0 and then proceeded to get shutout 8-0 the following night. Tough loss there; but not nearly as sickening as Pittsburgh pissing away an early 7-2 lead in the opener against the Dodgers. Thankfully the Buccos took the next two to cash our series wager in (+144). Let’s see if we can add to the bottom line with Tuesday’s best bet installment – SLAM YOUR MAN!!


YTD: 46-40-3 ($545)

LW: 12-10 ($213)


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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Tampa Bay Rays


While an enormous regression to the negative is bound to hit the Rays at some point, I think the offense does more than enough to put the team in a position to win the series opener against the Pirates on Tuesday night. Roansy Contreras has been excellent through five starts as one of the main contributors to Pittsburgh’s starting staff ranking No. 1 in the quality starts department. Since getting bludgeoned by the Astros back on April 7, Contreras has tossed three straight quality starts allowing 13 hits and only 3 ER with a 19:7 K/BB ratio through 18.2 combined innings.


The right-hander is the epitome of a two-pitch hurler with the slider and 4-seamer getting 46 and 39 percent usage respectively. Tampa stands 17-5 versus RHP by putting an average of 6.8 runs per game on the board. On top of that, they mash the slider and 4-seamer evidenced by more than a handful of players producing positive run values against each pitch type per Baseball Savant. Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe will be major headaches for the 23-year old! But instead of laying the heavy chalk with the home team, we’ll instead look to hit the under of Roansy’s pitching outs prop which should surface in the 15.5 to 16.5 range.




Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A’s


A quick glance of Mason Miller’s box scores from his first two starts don’t paint the prettiest of pictures. He’s been raked for nine hits and served up 6 ER through 8.1 combined innings. However, the soon to be 25-year old has tallied 11 strikeouts and only issued two free passes. His first two assignments came in the forms of the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels with each squad ranked amongst the top-8 in OPS while averaging 5.7 and 5.2 runs per game respectively. Both teams also boast K rates in the top half of the league.


Pitching on seven-days rest after having his start against the Reds skipped over the weekend, I fully expect the 24-year old to shine in this the third start of his MLB career against a Seattle team that owns a near 30 percent K-rate both overall (No. 29) and against RHP. The Mariners also rank No. 20 with an 8.5 percent walk rate that drops to 7.9 percent when playing away from T-Mobile Park. Slam the over should his K prop open 4.5 like it did in his first two starts – 5.5 is a no-brainer as well as big a rut the M’s currently find themselves in!




Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers


The Phillies are currently on a heater taking four straight series since splitting with the Cincinnati Reds in the middle of April. Everything looks to be falling into place. I however will test the hot streak in the second game of this three-game set in Tinseltown with Matt Strahm on the bump. I’m sorry, but this dude is nothing short of a gas can that gets in, gets hooked quick, and leaves a blazing trail of smoking hot magma behind him for the bullpen to clean up. Each of his last three starts resulted in shutouts that saw Philly go 1-2 with his high water pitch count clocking in at 82. Problem is that outing only saw him go 5.1 innings!


The Dodgers ranked No. 9 against left-handed pitching a season ago in going 32-17 and averaging a healthy 5.0 runs per game. For one reason or another, Freddie Freeman and co. is batting .171 with a .622 OPS (No. 29) against southpaws to date. I expect that output to positively regress here soon. No better opponent to do it against than Strahm! No team has scored fewer runs per game against lefties than the Phillies (2.6). However, Julio Urias has been awful in his last three turns taking the L in each conceding 22 hits and 13 ER through 14 total IP. Philadelphia has raked the 4-seamer and changeup which constitute two of his most heavily used pitches per Pitcher List. If his curve placement is an issue again, another early trip to the showers will be in his future.




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