Tuesday, May 16 MLB Best Bets

By Mike Rose

Last Tuesday’s MLB Best Bets came one of Shane Bieber’s best starts of the year away from sweeping the board at BetRivers Sportsbook. The night started off with a care free waltz back to the ticket window to cash a ticket in on the Atlanta Braves who pummeled Nick Pivetta for eight hits (1 HR) and 7 ER to cruise to the 9-3 win and run-line cover. Bieber ended up tossing six innings of shutout ball and tallied a season-high 9 K to hand us our only loss of the evening. We did however get it back and some with an underdog ticket cash on the Marlins with Jesus Luzardo hurling six innings of 1 ER ball to earn his first win since April 11. Let’s keep that positive momentum moving forward and cash on the MLB odds once again with another installment of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!


YTD: 65-63-5 (-$160)

LW: 11-9-2 ($135)


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Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins


Two of my favorite young up-and-coming pitchers will square off Tuesday night when the Nats and Marlins battle one another against the MLB betting odds in the opener of their three-game set from spacious LoanDepot Park. Josiah Gray has been a solid moneymaker of late helping lead his squad to victory in three of his last four starts. The right-hander simply just seems to be getting it settling into a groove by way of relying upon his slider and limiting fastball usage to rank No. 40 in ERA (2.96) and No. 31 in hard contact percentage (22.3%). Miami’s .667 OPS against RHP ranks No. 26 overall and it will already be without Jesus Sanchez and possibly Jazz Chisholm.


As for Jesus Luzardo, half of his eight overall starts have been of quality and his slider is one of the more dominant pitch offerings in the game with its swinging strike percentage ranked in the 80th percentile. Though both teams have some players that’ve earned positive run values against slide pieces per Baseball Savant, I foresee this being one of those “anything you can do I can do better” type matchups with each hurler looking to outdo the other. That should move the game right along and hang a number of zeroes on the board early on.




Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox


Don’t laugh but the Mariners series win over what had been a streaking Tigers outfit in Detroit is notable. The offense finally looks to be coming around with it averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last five games, and it’s set up to excel in this spot with Nick Pivetta taking the bump for Boston in game two of this series. The Red Sox just got embarrassed at home by the St. Louis Cardinals, and we banked on the Redbirds going into Fenway and making some noise. I plan on doing the exact same with Julio Rodriguez and his mates through Wednesday.


Pivetta has been horrendous serving up nearly 10.0 hits and 4.0 walks per nine innings. He’s allowed 24 earned runs through just short of 35 total innings pitched, and is the owner of a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home where only one of his four made starts have been of quality. With Boston’s offense going into the tank since lighting things up on that road trip to Toronto and Philly, I have no issue laying the road chalk with Luis Castillo knowing he’s still in search of his first road win and his arsenal has been solid against both platoon splits. This could get a bit chalky however, so we’ll hit the M’s moneyline odds and pair it with the run-line to turn it into a -1 wager and expect a win by no fewer than two runs.




Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals


I faded Jordan Montgomery his last time out in Chicago and the decision to do so paid off handsomely after the Cubs raked him for seven hits (2 HR) and 6 ER through five innings of work. The showing saw his quality start streak come to an end at three dropping his QS percentage to 62 percent for the baseball betting season. He’ll be back in line to earn another in the second game of this series against Milwaukee with the Brew Crew simply allergic to left-handed pitching. Don’t believe me? Check this out! They’re .618 OPS ranks dead last of all 30 teams while their 3.1 runs per game average ranks No. 28 overall.


As for the Redbirds, Lars Nootbaar and co. gets the benefit of running up against Wade Miley whose 3-2 record is a bit misleading considering his 4.47 FIP is nearly a run higher than his 3.60 ERA. The St. Louis offense looks to be rounding into form with it averaging 6.6 runs while raking to an .817 OPS over its last seven games. Though just 5-5 against the baseball betting odds versus starting LHP, the unit has averaged 5.1 runs per game and has had success against Miley in the past. If the Cardinals are to get back in the NL Central pennant race, they must defend their turf against the division’s best. Their odds of repeating as champs have already shrunk from +550 to +400 over the last week. There’s still enough meet on the bone to buy at that offering regardless of currently bringing up the rear of the division standings!




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